What mathematical model and units does GridLoom Europe use?

GridLoom Europe applies ŷ_{t+h} = β_0 + Σ_k β_k Φ_calendar(t+h) + Σ_j α_j y_{t+h−24j} (Calendar-Ridge + Local-Seasonal ensemble with empirical residual quantile intervals [q_{0.10}, q_{0.90}]). Units: Load and solar generation in megawatts (MW); day-ahead electricity price in EUR/MWh; history window = 56 days (1,344 hourly rows ending 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z); forecast horizon = 72 hours.

What are the operational boundaries and limitations of GridLoom Europe?

Precomputed European demand, solar and price forecast experiments with held-out backtests. Not live forecasts, certified market predictions or network power-flow simulation. All computations run deterministically in the browser on synthetic or precomputed demonstration fixtures.

TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY & VERIFICATION SPECIFICATION

GridLoom Europe: Mathematical Model, Units & Reproducible Benchmarks

Q: How can I reproduce the benchmark results in GridLoom Europe?

Open the interactive browser workspace at ./run/, select Case 1 to inspect the worked result (Market DE:DE-LU (Germany/Luxembourg bidding zone, 1,344 hourly training rows from 2026-08-10 to 2026-10-04 UTC): At 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z, the 72-hour ahead load forecast is 40,682.27 MW with empirical interval [38,991.57 MW, 42,372.98 MW], evaluated alongside solar generation (MW) and price (EUR/MWh) held-out backtests.), and export the JSON or CSV evidence ledger.

Role & Domain Intent: European energy forecast experiments (Demand/solar/price backtests, not an Internet exchange or network power-flow solver.)

1. GOVERNING FORMULATION

Equations, Variables & Dimensional Rules

Precomputed European demand, solar and price forecast experiments with held-out backtests.

ŷ_{t+h} = β_0 + Σ_k β_k Φ_calendar(t+h) + Σ_j α_j y_{t+h−24j} (Calendar-Ridge + Local-Seasonal ensemble with empirical residual quantile intervals [q_{0.10}, q_{0.90}])

Declared Units: Load and solar generation in megawatts (MW); day-ahead electricity price in EUR/MWh; history window = 56 days (1,344 hourly rows ending 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z); forecast horizon = 72 hours.

2. REPRODUCIBLE WORKED EXAMPLE

Step-by-Step Numerical Verification

Market DE:DE-LU (Germany/Luxembourg bidding zone, 1,344 hourly training rows from 2026-08-10 to 2026-10-04 UTC): At 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z, the 72-hour ahead load forecast is 40,682.27 MW with empirical interval [38,991.57 MW, 42,372.98 MW], evaluated alongside solar generation (MW) and price (EUR/MWh) held-out backtests.

Verified benchmark cases from the GridLoom Europe browser edition
Market Zone	Country	Target Variable	Training Rows	Horizon (h)	Sample Point (2026-10-05 00:00Z)	Lower / Upper Band
DE:DE-LU	Germany	Load (MW)	1,344 (56 d)	72 h	40,682.27 MW	38,991.57 – 42,372.98 MW
FR:FR	France	Load (MW)	1,344 (56 d)	72 h	Precomputed Ensemble	10th–90th Percentile Band
NL:NL	Netherlands	Solar & Price	1,344 (56 d)	72 h	Precomputed Ensemble	10th–90th Percentile Band

3. DATA PROVENANCE & OPERATIONAL BOUNDARIES

Validation Status, Scope Exclusions & Disclaimers

Data Status: Synthetic / precomputed browser demonstration fixtures generated deterministically from the project engine.
Operational Limitation: Not live forecasts, certified market predictions or network power-flow simulation.
Client-Side Execution: All interactive views, filters, and JSON/CSV exports execute locally in the user's browser with zero external API calls, zero telemetry, and no server-side persistence.
Author & Principal Investigator: Mohammad Rezwan Khan, PhD (Aalborg University · BESS QA/QC & Power Systems Specialist).