{ "schema_version": 1, "snapshot": { "created_for": "fixed reproducible demo", "history_end_exclusive": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "history_days": 56, "horizon_hours": 72, "source_kind": "synthetic", "generated_by": "scripts/generate_public_demo.py using src/gridloom/data.py and src/gridloom/forecast.py" }, "algorithm": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "provenance": "GridLoom Europe original numerical implementation; see docs/MODEL_CARD.md", "backtest": "7 daily calibration origins, then a separate 48-hour holdout; repeat-last-day baseline", "scenario": "Displayed scenarios apply the same bounded arithmetic to future points and bands only; backtests stay unchanged." }, "assumptions": [ "Synthetic hourly series are deterministic toy data, not measured European electricity data.", "History is 56 days of hourly rows, ending at the fixed snapshot boundary; future forecasts start at that boundary.", "Timestamps and repeated-hour identity use UTC. Calendar features use the selected context's local timezone.", "Power targets are hourly MW; prices are the configured currency per MWh. No currency conversion is applied.", "Bands are heuristic empirical residual ranges, not guaranteed coverage. The model has no weather, grid, or dispatch inputs.", "The browser edition serves precomputed Python results. No FastAPI service, database, live data feed, Astra or paid provider is connected." ], "markets": [ { "id": "DE:DE-LU", "country": "DE", "country_name": "Germany", "zone": "DE-LU", "timezone": "Europe/Berlin", "currency": "EUR", "source_kind": "synthetic", "history": { "rows": 1344, "first": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "frequency": "1 hour", "timebase": "UTC timestamps; local market time for model features" }, "results": { "load_mw": { "target": "load_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 40682.2715, "lower": 38991.5661, "upper": 42372.977, "baseline": 40682.2715 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 39625.002, "lower": 37899.433, "upper": 41350.571, "baseline": 39625.002 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 38905.6934, "lower": 37145.9514, "upper": 40665.4354, "baseline": 38905.6934 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 38605.6577, "lower": 36812.3938, "upper": 40398.9217, "baseline": 38605.6577 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 38779.9529, "lower": 36953.7823, "upper": 40606.1235, "baseline": 38779.9529 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 39433.4593, "lower": 37574.9646, "upper": 41291.954, "baseline": 39433.4593 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 40512.7974, "lower": 38622.5312, "upper": 42403.0635, "baseline": 40512.7974 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 41918.6224, "lower": 39997.1101, "upper": 43840.1347, "baseline": 41918.6224 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 43531.4566, "lower": 41579.1981, "upper": 45483.715, "baseline": 43531.4566 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 45237.0715, "lower": 43254.5437, "upper": 47219.5994, "baseline": 45237.0715 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 46938.6892, "lower": 44926.3473, "upper": 48951.0312, "baseline": 46938.6892 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 48552.0761, "lower": 46510.3553, "upper": 50593.7969, "baseline": 48552.0761 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 49990.6305, "lower": 47919.9477, "upper": 52061.3133, "baseline": 49990.6305 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 51154.1308, "lower": 49054.8855, "upper": 53253.3761, "baseline": 51154.1308 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 51932.892, "lower": 49805.4676, "upper": 54060.3164, "baseline": 51932.892 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 52229.6718, "lower": 50074.4367, "upper": 54384.9068, "baseline": 52229.6718 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 51990.2847, "lower": 49807.5933, "upper": 54172.976, "baseline": 51990.2847 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 51227.2916, "lower": 49017.4851, "upper": 53437.0982, "baseline": 51227.2916 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 50023.4091, "lower": 47786.816, "upper": 52260.0021, "baseline": 50023.4091 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 48511.3533, "lower": 46248.2907, "upper": 50774.4158, "baseline": 48511.3533 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 46839.0666, "lower": 44549.8406, "upper": 49128.2926, "baseline": 46839.0666 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 45136.7075, "lower": 42821.6137, "upper": 47451.8012, "baseline": 45136.7075 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 43568.1587, "lower": 41227.483, "upper": 45908.8344, "baseline": 43568.1587 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 42064.2584, "lower": 39698.2774, "upper": 44430.2394, "baseline": 42064.2584 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 40750.2485, "lower": 38359.23, "upper": 43141.2671, "baseline": 40750.2485 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 39692.979, "lower": 37277.1823, "upper": 42108.7756, "baseline": 39692.979 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 38973.6704, "lower": 36533.3473, "upper": 41413.9935, "baseline": 38973.6704 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 38673.6347, "lower": 36209.0292, "upper": 41138.2403, "baseline": 38673.6347 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 38847.9299, "lower": 36359.2789, "upper": 41336.5809, "baseline": 38847.9299 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 39501.4363, "lower": 36988.9699, "upper": 42013.9027, "baseline": 39501.4363 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 40580.7744, "lower": 38044.7162, "upper": 43116.8325, "baseline": 40580.7744 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 41986.5994, "lower": 39427.1669, "upper": 44546.0319, "baseline": 41986.5994 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 43599.4336, "lower": 41016.8383, "upper": 46182.0288, "baseline": 43599.4336 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 45305.0485, "lower": 42699.4965, "upper": 47910.6006, "baseline": 45305.0485 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 47006.6662, "lower": 44378.3578, "upper": 49634.9747, "baseline": 47006.6662 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 48620.0531, "lower": 45969.1837, "upper": 51270.9226, "baseline": 48620.0531 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 50058.6075, "lower": 47385.3675, "upper": 52731.8475, "baseline": 50058.6075 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 51222.1078, "lower": 48526.6828, "upper": 53917.5328, "baseline": 51222.1078 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 52000.869, "lower": 49283.4402, "upper": 54718.2978, "baseline": 52000.869 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 52297.6488, "lower": 49558.3929, "upper": 55036.9047, "baseline": 52297.6488 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 52058.2617, "lower": 49297.3512, "upper": 54819.1721, "baseline": 52058.2617 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 51295.2686, "lower": 48512.8722, "upper": 54077.6651, "baseline": 51295.2686 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 50091.3861, "lower": 47287.6683, "upper": 52895.1039, "baseline": 50091.3861 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 48579.3303, "lower": 45754.4521, "upper": 51404.2085, "baseline": 48579.3303 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 46907.0436, "lower": 44061.1622, "upper": 49752.9249, "baseline": 46907.0436 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 45204.6845, "lower": 42337.9539, "upper": 48071.415, "baseline": 45204.6845 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 43481.4054, "lower": 40593.9762, "upper": 46368.8347, "baseline": 43481.4054 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 41977.5052, "lower": 39069.5246, "upper": 44885.4858, "baseline": 41977.5052 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 40663.4953, "lower": 37735.1076, "upper": 43591.883, "baseline": 40663.4953 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 39606.2257, "lower": 36657.5721, "upper": 42554.8794, "baseline": 39606.2257 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 38886.9171, "lower": 35918.1359, "upper": 41855.6983, "baseline": 38886.9171 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 38586.8815, "lower": 35598.1083, "upper": 41575.6547, "baseline": 38586.8815 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 38761.1766, "lower": 35752.5443, "upper": 41769.809, "baseline": 38761.1766 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 39414.6831, "lower": 36386.3217, "upper": 42443.0444, "baseline": 39414.6831 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 40494.0211, "lower": 37446.0585, "upper": 43541.9837, "baseline": 40494.0211 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 41899.8462, "lower": 38832.4076, "upper": 44967.2847, "baseline": 41899.8462 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 43512.6803, "lower": 40425.8886, "upper": 46599.472, "baseline": 43512.6803 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 45218.2953, "lower": 42112.2711, "upper": 48324.3195, "baseline": 45218.2953 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 46919.913, "lower": 43794.7746, "upper": 50045.0514, "baseline": 46919.913 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 48533.2999, "lower": 45389.1635, "upper": 51677.4363, "baseline": 48533.2999 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 49971.8543, "lower": 46808.834, "upper": 53134.8745, "baseline": 49971.8543 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 51135.3546, "lower": 47953.5625, "upper": 54317.1466, "baseline": 51135.3546 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 51914.1157, "lower": 48713.662, "upper": 55114.5695, "baseline": 51914.1157 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 52210.8955, "lower": 48991.8882, "upper": 55429.9028, "baseline": 52210.8955 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 51971.5084, "lower": 48734.054, "upper": 55208.9629, "baseline": 51971.5084 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 51208.5154, "lower": 47952.7183, "upper": 54464.3125, "baseline": 51208.5154 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 50004.6328, "lower": 46730.5958, "upper": 53278.6698, "baseline": 50004.6328 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 48492.577, "lower": 45200.4012, "upper": 51784.7529, "baseline": 48492.577 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 46820.2903, "lower": 43510.075, "upper": 50130.5056, "baseline": 46820.2903 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 45117.9312, "lower": 41789.7742, "upper": 48446.0882, "baseline": 45117.9312 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 43953.0386, "lower": 40607.0362, "upper": 47299.0411, "baseline": 43953.0386 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 42449.1384, "lower": 39085.3851, "upper": 45812.8916, "baseline": 42449.1384 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 1690.7054 }, "backtest": { "mae": 1000.3723, "rmse": 1263.7678, "baseline_mae": 5692.7806, "skill": 0.8243, "wape_pct": 2.538, "interval_coverage_pct": 89.58, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 33682.998, "predicted": 34264.9272 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 35112.385, "predicted": 33211.7887 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 31393.799, "predicted": 32504.9612 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 32678.121, "predicted": 32217.6287 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 31650.647, "predicted": 32395.5863 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 32085.403, "predicted": 33039.0559 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 34418.314, "predicted": 34097.8823 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 36962.772, "predicted": 35482.5853 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 37759.347, "predicted": 37084.9883 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 40385.476, "predicted": 38797.3295 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 41428.731, "predicted": 40520.7012 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 41209.016, "predicted": 42161.0781 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 43416.724, "predicted": 43619.5621 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 44391.302, "predicted": 44787.6282 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 43069.58, "predicted": 45555.4872 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 46657.913, "predicted": 45833.6016 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 45092.428, "predicted": 45578.6465 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 45659.207, "predicted": 44811.0313 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 42749.639, "predicted": 43614.1759 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 44908.829, "predicted": 42114.5454 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 41528.881, "predicted": 40451.111 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 39445.866, "predicted": 38747.9878 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 38806.178, "predicted": 37324.569 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 35466.332, "predicted": 35808.3376 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 34529.656, "predicted": 34487.8826 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 34553.848, "predicted": 33434.744 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 33564.143, "predicted": 32727.9165 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 33438.373, "predicted": 32440.584 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 31036.997, "predicted": 32618.5416 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 32450.598, "predicted": 33262.0112 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 35233.489, "predicted": 34320.8376 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 38640.285, "predicted": 35705.5407 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 38016.768, "predicted": 37307.9436 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 39359.201, "predicted": 39020.2849 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 42418.551, "predicted": 40743.6565 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 42252.227, "predicted": 42384.0335 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 40567.241, "predicted": 43842.5175 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 46181.682, "predicted": 45010.5836 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 45664.873, "predicted": 45778.4425 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 46145.461, "predicted": 46056.557 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 47177.607, "predicted": 45801.6019 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 44985.12, "predicted": 45033.9866 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 44032.027, "predicted": 43837.1313 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 40059.256, "predicted": 42337.5007 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 38947.133, "predicted": 40674.0664 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 39003.827, "predicted": 38970.9431 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 42718.815, "predicted": 43488.7458 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 41298.79, "predicted": 41972.5145 } ] } }, "solar_mw": { "target": "solar_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3298.1713, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3366.182, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3432.8456, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 685.8414, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4184.0804, "baseline": 685.8414 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 3929.7058, "lower": 367.2736, "upper": 7492.138, "baseline": 3929.7058 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 7990.9964, "lower": 4365.5074, "upper": 11616.4854, "baseline": 7990.9964 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 12169.7263, "lower": 8482.2587, "upper": 15857.194, "baseline": 12169.7263 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 15816.0017, "lower": 12067.58, "upper": 19564.4233, "baseline": 15816.0017 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 18516.6408, "lower": 14708.2406, "upper": 22325.041, "baseline": 18516.6408 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 20122.5223, "lower": 16255.0736, "upper": 23989.971, "baseline": 20122.5223 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 20641.3407, "lower": 16715.7317, "upper": 24566.9498, "baseline": 20641.3407 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 20097.8301, "lower": 16114.9098, "upper": 24080.7504, "baseline": 20097.8301 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 18471.4812, "lower": 14432.0628, "upper": 22510.8996, "baseline": 18471.4812 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 15758.2982, "lower": 11663.1611, "upper": 19853.4354, "baseline": 15758.2982 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 12109.889, "lower": 7959.7811, "upper": 16259.9969, "baseline": 12109.889 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 7939.9196, "lower": 3735.5596, "upper": 12144.2796, "baseline": 7939.9196 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 3896.1992, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 8154.1201, "baseline": 3896.1992 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 674.1591, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4984.9755, "baseline": 674.1591 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4363.0706, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4414.7063, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4465.7451, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4516.2071, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4566.1115, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4615.4763, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4664.3186, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4712.6548, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4760.5003, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 436.949, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5244.8186, "baseline": 436.949 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 3680.8133, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 8535.5901, "baseline": 3680.8133 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 7742.1039, "lower": 2840.8689, "upper": 12643.3389, "baseline": 7742.1039 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 11920.8339, "lower": 6973.5769, "upper": 16868.0909, "baseline": 11920.8339 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 15567.1092, "lower": 10574.2544, "upper": 20559.964, "baseline": 15567.1092 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 18267.7483, "lower": 13229.7084, "upper": 23305.7882, "baseline": 18267.7483 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 19873.6299, "lower": 14790.8065, "upper": 24956.4532, "baseline": 19873.6299 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 20392.4483, "lower": 15265.2326, "upper": 25519.664, "baseline": 20392.4483 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 19848.9377, "lower": 14677.7107, "upper": 25020.1646, "baseline": 19848.9377 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 18222.5887, "lower": 13007.722, "upper": 23437.4555, "baseline": 18222.5887 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 15509.4058, "lower": 10251.2614, "upper": 20767.5502, "baseline": 15509.4058 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 11860.9965, "lower": 6559.9278, "upper": 17162.0653, "baseline": 11860.9965 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 7691.0271, "lower": 2347.3788, "upper": 13034.6754, "baseline": 7691.0271 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 3647.3067, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 9033.198, "baseline": 3647.3067 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 425.2667, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5853.0721, "baseline": 425.2667 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5469.3984, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5510.6775, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5551.6496, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5592.3216, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5632.6999, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5672.7908, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5712.6003, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5752.1344, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5791.3985, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 529.4933, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 6359.8916, "baseline": 529.4933 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 3773.3576, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 9642.4965, "baseline": 3773.3576 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 7834.6483, "lower": 1927.0228, "upper": 13742.2737, "baseline": 7834.6483 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 12013.3782, "lower": 6067.5153, "upper": 17959.2411, "baseline": 12013.3782 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 15659.6535, "lower": 9675.7975, "upper": 21643.5096, "baseline": 15659.6535 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 18360.2926, "lower": 12338.6832, "upper": 24381.9021, "baseline": 18360.2926 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 19966.1742, "lower": 13907.0465, "upper": 26025.3018, "baseline": 19966.1742 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 20484.9926, "lower": 14388.5777, "upper": 26581.4075, "baseline": 20484.9926 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 19941.482, "lower": 13808.0064, "upper": 26074.9575, "baseline": 19941.482 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 18315.1331, "lower": 12144.8195, "upper": 24485.4466, "baseline": 18315.1331 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 15601.9501, "lower": 9395.0171, "upper": 21808.8831, "baseline": 15601.9501 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 11953.5409, "lower": 5710.2033, "upper": 18196.8784, "baseline": 11953.5409 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 7783.5714, "lower": 1504.0403, "upper": 14063.1026, "baseline": 7783.5714 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 3739.8511, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 10055.3683, "baseline": 3739.8511 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 517.811, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 6869.1105, "baseline": 517.811 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 6386.8813, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 6422.266, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 6457.4567, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 6492.4568, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 6527.2691, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 6561.8968, "baseline": 0.0 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 3298.1713 }, "backtest": { "mae": 800.7751, "rmse": 1263.3735, "baseline_mae": 1282.7785, "skill": 0.3757, "wape_pct": 10.705, "interval_coverage_pct": 100.0, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 719.2185 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 2282.161, "predicted": 3982.2938 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 6658.969, "predicted": 8049.3235 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 10598.998, "predicted": 12215.2017 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 15983.632, "predicted": 15833.4855 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 17880.062, "predicted": 18502.3628 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 21358.217, "predicted": 20086.9753 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 22680.099, "predicted": 20605.2605 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 20202.399, "predicted": 20083.0179 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 16824.913, "predicted": 18491.0038 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 14284.1, "predicted": 15810.9502 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 11994.696, "predicted": 12181.5248 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 7081.221, "predicted": 8010.6328 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 2244.15, "predicted": 3949.3656 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 702.6786 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 754.2191 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 2024.978, "predicted": 4017.2944 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 8793.311, "predicted": 8084.3241 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 14424.015, "predicted": 12250.2023 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 18617.848, "predicted": 15868.4861 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 18036.712, "predicted": 18537.3634 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 23531.474, "predicted": 20121.9759 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 24114.913, "predicted": 20640.2611 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 20468.019, "predicted": 20118.0185 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 21298.712, "predicted": 18526.0044 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 15568.48, "predicted": 15845.9508 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 11976.417, "predicted": 12216.5254 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 7898.054, "predicted": 8045.6333 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 2217.099, "predicted": 3984.3662 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 737.6792 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 } ] } }, "price_mwh": { "target": "price_mwh", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 86.6875, "lower": 73.6937, "upper": 99.6814, "baseline": 86.6875 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 86.5884, "lower": 73.3266, "upper": 99.8502, "baseline": 86.5884 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 84.6822, "lower": 71.1578, "upper": 98.2066, "baseline": 84.6822 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 80.2206, "lower": 66.4386, "upper": 94.0027, "baseline": 80.2206 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 73.4265, "lower": 59.3915, "upper": 87.4614, "baseline": 73.4265 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 65.3805, "lower": 51.0971, "upper": 79.6639, "baseline": 65.3805 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 57.5359, "lower": 43.0083, "upper": 72.0634, "baseline": 57.5359 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 51.1476, "lower": 36.3799, "upper": 65.9153, "baseline": 51.1476 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 46.9164, "lower": 31.9124, "upper": 61.9204, "baseline": 46.9164 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 44.9895, "lower": 29.7529, "upper": 60.2262, "baseline": 44.9895 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 45.2346, "lower": 29.7689, "upper": 60.7004, "baseline": 45.2346 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 47.5489, "lower": 31.8574, "upper": 63.2405, "baseline": 47.5489 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 51.9665, "lower": 36.0523, "upper": 67.8806, "baseline": 51.9665 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 58.4851, "lower": 42.3515, "upper": 74.6188, "baseline": 58.4851 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 66.7402, "lower": 50.3899, "upper": 83.0904, "baseline": 66.7402 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 75.7785, "lower": 59.2145, "upper": 92.3425, "baseline": 75.7785 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 84.1512, "lower": 67.3762, "upper": 100.9262, "baseline": 84.1512 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 90.3544, "lower": 73.371, "upper": 107.3378, "baseline": 90.3544 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 93.4287, "lower": 76.2395, "upper": 110.618, "baseline": 93.4287 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 93.3974, "lower": 76.0047, "upper": 110.7901, "baseline": 93.3974 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 91.2798, "lower": 73.686, "upper": 108.8736, "baseline": 91.2798 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 88.6299, "lower": 70.8373, "upper": 106.4225, "baseline": 88.6299 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 85.1247, "lower": 67.1356, "upper": 103.1139, "baseline": 85.1247 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 84.6532, "lower": 66.4696, "upper": 102.8369, "baseline": 84.6532 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 85.006, "lower": 66.6299, "upper": 103.382, "baseline": 85.006 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 84.9069, "lower": 66.3404, "upper": 103.4734, "baseline": 84.9069 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 83.0006, "lower": 64.2456, "upper": 101.7556, "baseline": 83.0006 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 78.5391, "lower": 59.5974, "upper": 97.4807, "baseline": 78.5391 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 71.7449, "lower": 52.6185, "upper": 90.8713, "baseline": 71.7449 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 63.6989, "lower": 44.3895, "upper": 83.0084, "baseline": 63.6989 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 55.8543, "lower": 36.3635, "upper": 75.3451, "baseline": 55.8543 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 49.466, "lower": 29.7956, "upper": 69.1365, "baseline": 49.466 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 45.2349, "lower": 25.3864, "upper": 65.0833, "baseline": 45.2349 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 43.308, "lower": 23.2831, "upper": 63.3328, "baseline": 43.308 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 43.5531, "lower": 23.3533, "upper": 63.7529, "baseline": 43.5531 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 45.8674, "lower": 25.4942, "upper": 66.2405, "baseline": 45.8674 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 50.2849, "lower": 29.7398, "upper": 70.83, "baseline": 50.2849 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 56.8036, "lower": 36.088, "upper": 77.5192, "baseline": 56.8036 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 65.0586, "lower": 44.1739, "upper": 85.9433, "baseline": 65.0586 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 74.097, "lower": 53.0445, "upper": 95.1494, "baseline": 74.097 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 82.4696, "lower": 61.2508, "upper": 103.6885, "baseline": 82.4696 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 88.6728, "lower": 67.2888, "upper": 110.0568, "baseline": 88.6728 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 91.7472, "lower": 70.1993, "upper": 113.295, "baseline": 91.7472 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 91.7159, "lower": 70.0054, "upper": 113.4264, "baseline": 91.7159 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 89.5982, "lower": 67.7263, "upper": 111.4702, "baseline": 89.5982 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 86.9483, "lower": 64.9162, "upper": 108.9805, "baseline": 86.9483 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 84.2822, "lower": 62.0909, "upper": 106.4734, "baseline": 84.2822 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 83.8107, "lower": 61.4615, "upper": 106.1598, "baseline": 83.8107 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 84.1634, "lower": 61.6574, "upper": 106.6694, "baseline": 84.1634 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 84.0643, "lower": 61.4025, "upper": 106.7261, "baseline": 84.0643 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 82.1581, "lower": 59.3416, "upper": 104.9745, "baseline": 82.1581 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 77.6965, "lower": 54.7264, "upper": 100.6666, "baseline": 77.6965 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 70.9023, "lower": 47.7796, "upper": 94.0251, "baseline": 70.9023 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 62.8563, "lower": 39.582, "upper": 86.1307, "baseline": 62.8563 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 55.0117, "lower": 31.5867, "upper": 78.4367, "baseline": 55.0117 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 48.6235, "lower": 25.0488, "upper": 72.1981, "baseline": 48.6235 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 44.3923, "lower": 20.6689, "upper": 68.1157, "baseline": 44.3923 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 42.4654, "lower": 18.5942, "upper": 66.3366, "baseline": 42.4654 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 42.7105, "lower": 18.6924, "upper": 66.7286, "baseline": 42.7105 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 45.0248, "lower": 20.8607, "upper": 69.1889, "baseline": 45.0248 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 49.4423, "lower": 25.1331, "upper": 73.7516, "baseline": 49.4423 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 55.961, "lower": 31.5075, "upper": 80.4146, "baseline": 55.961 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 64.216, "lower": 39.6191, "upper": 88.813, "baseline": 64.216 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 73.2544, "lower": 48.5148, "upper": 97.994, "baseline": 73.2544 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 81.6271, "lower": 56.7457, "upper": 106.5084, "baseline": 81.6271 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 87.8303, "lower": 62.808, "upper": 112.8526, "baseline": 87.8303 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 90.9046, "lower": 65.7421, "upper": 116.0671, "baseline": 90.9046 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 90.8733, "lower": 65.5714, "upper": 116.1752, "baseline": 90.8733 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 88.7557, "lower": 63.3151, "upper": 114.1962, "baseline": 88.7557 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 86.1058, "lower": 60.5273, "upper": 111.6842, "baseline": 86.1058 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 87.3926, "lower": 61.6771, "upper": 113.1082, "baseline": 87.3926 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 86.9211, "lower": 61.0691, "upper": 112.7731, "baseline": 86.9211 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 12.9939 }, "backtest": { "mae": 6.8226, "rmse": 9.2331, "baseline_mae": 10.1123, "skill": 0.3253, "wape_pct": 10.217, "interval_coverage_pct": 91.67, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 79.682, "predicted": 81.0624 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 72.696, "predicted": 80.9875 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 73.959, "predicted": 79.1047 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 79.814, "predicted": 74.638 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 88.092, "predicted": 67.8054 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 61.313, "predicted": 59.7094 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 46.126, "predicted": 51.8385 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 54.273, "predicted": 45.4737 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 42.905, "predicted": 41.3141 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 39.877, "predicted": 39.476 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 25.949, "predicted": 39.7823 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 48.567, "predicted": 42.0971 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 45.003, "predicted": 46.4526 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 51.348, "predicted": 52.8792 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 74.579, "predicted": 61.0622 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 72.346, "predicted": 70.0892 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 86.868, "predicted": 78.5206 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 96.369, "predicted": 84.8253 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 80.616, "predicted": 87.9948 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 81.527, "predicted": 88.008 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 83.196, "predicted": 85.8674 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 83.426, "predicted": 83.1452 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 78.852, "predicted": 82.0745 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 103.033, "predicted": 81.551 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 76.071, "predicted": 81.8968 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 80.113, "predicted": 81.8219 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 69.945, "predicted": 79.9391 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 74.575, "predicted": 75.4724 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 79.698, "predicted": 68.6398 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 58.918, "predicted": 60.5438 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 49.043, "predicted": 52.6729 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 25.551, "predicted": 46.3081 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 61.208, "predicted": 42.1486 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 37.677, "predicted": 40.3104 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 40.38, "predicted": 40.6167 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 39.685, "predicted": 42.9315 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 32.879, "predicted": 47.2871 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 53.01, "predicted": 53.7137 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 65.399, "predicted": 61.8966 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 56.443, "predicted": 70.9236 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 81.987, "predicted": 79.355 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 78.678, "predicted": 85.6597 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 93.179, "predicted": 88.8293 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 66.433, "predicted": 88.8424 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 75.942, "predicted": 86.7018 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 83.55, "predicted": 83.9796 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 83.896, "predicted": 87.0365 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 90.673, "predicted": 86.5131 } ] } } } }, { "id": "GB:GB", "country": "GB", "country_name": "United Kingdom", "zone": "GB", "timezone": "Europe/London", "currency": "GBP", "source_kind": "synthetic", "history": { "rows": 1344, "first": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "frequency": "1 hour", "timebase": "UTC timestamps; local market time for model features" }, "results": { "load_mw": { "target": "load_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 31600.7738, "lower": 30448.7527, "upper": 32752.7949, "baseline": 31600.7738 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 30587.6504, "lower": 29411.8738, "upper": 31763.427, "baseline": 30587.6504 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 29829.6093, "lower": 28630.5477, "upper": 31028.6709, "baseline": 29829.6093 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 29362.477, "lower": 28140.5741, "upper": 30584.3799, "baseline": 29362.477 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 29209.9764, "lower": 27965.6514, "upper": 30454.3014, "baseline": 29209.9764 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 29384.9796, "lower": 28118.6294, "upper": 30651.3298, "baseline": 29384.9796 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 29885.5725, "lower": 28597.5737, "upper": 31173.5712, "baseline": 29885.5725 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 30688.4211, "lower": 29379.1317, "upper": 31997.7105, "baseline": 30688.4211 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 31744.0952, "lower": 30413.8559, "upper": 33074.3346, "baseline": 31744.0952 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 32978.3255, "lower": 31627.461, "upper": 34329.19, "baseline": 32978.3255 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 34300.0819, "lower": 32928.9025, "upper": 35671.2612, "baseline": 34300.0819 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 35613.7128, "lower": 34222.5151, "upper": 37004.9104, "baseline": 35613.7128 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 36830.3355, "lower": 35419.4035, "upper": 38241.2674, "baseline": 36830.3355 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 37874.4182, "lower": 36444.0242, "upper": 39304.8122, "baseline": 37874.4182 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 38684.5565, "lower": 37234.9617, "upper": 40134.1513, "baseline": 38684.5565 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 39210.9643, "lower": 37742.4198, "upper": 40679.5089, "baseline": 39210.9643 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 39414.036, "lower": 37926.7831, "upper": 40901.2888, "baseline": 39414.036 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 39267.3489, "lower": 37761.6202, "upper": 40773.0777, "baseline": 39267.3489 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 38765.2299, "lower": 37241.2493, "upper": 40289.2106, "baseline": 38765.2299 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 37931.4219, "lower": 36389.4053, "upper": 39473.4385, "baseline": 37931.4219 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 36823.6506, "lower": 35263.8067, "upper": 38383.4946, "baseline": 36823.6506 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 35530.1449, "lower": 33952.675, "upper": 37107.6147, "baseline": 35530.1449 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 34157.8174, "lower": 32562.9164, "upper": 35752.7184, "baseline": 34157.8174 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 33076.2013, "lower": 31464.0576, "upper": 34688.345, "baseline": 33076.2013 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 31861.1047, "lower": 30231.9008, "upper": 33490.3085, "baseline": 31861.1047 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 30847.9813, "lower": 29201.894, "upper": 32494.0686, "baseline": 30847.9813 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 30089.9402, "lower": 28427.141, "upper": 31752.7394, "baseline": 30089.9402 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 29622.8079, "lower": 27943.463, "upper": 31302.1528, "baseline": 29622.8079 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 29470.3073, "lower": 27774.5781, "upper": 31166.0364, "baseline": 29470.3073 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 29645.3105, "lower": 27933.3539, "upper": 31357.2671, "baseline": 29645.3105 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 30145.9034, "lower": 28417.8717, "upper": 31873.935, "baseline": 30145.9034 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 30948.752, "lower": 29204.7934, "upper": 32692.7106, "baseline": 30948.752 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 32004.4261, "lower": 30244.6848, "upper": 33764.1674, "baseline": 32004.4261 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 33238.6564, "lower": 31463.2726, "upper": 35014.0401, "baseline": 33238.6564 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 34560.4128, "lower": 32769.5232, "upper": 36351.3023, "baseline": 34560.4128 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 35874.0437, "lower": 34067.7813, "upper": 37680.306, "baseline": 35874.0437 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 37090.6664, "lower": 35269.1611, "upper": 38912.1717, "baseline": 37090.6664 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 38134.7491, "lower": 36298.1273, "upper": 39971.3709, "baseline": 38134.7491 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 38944.8874, "lower": 37093.2725, "upper": 40796.5023, "baseline": 38944.8874 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 39471.2952, "lower": 37604.8077, "upper": 41337.7827, "baseline": 39471.2952 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 39674.3669, "lower": 37793.1243, "upper": 41555.6095, "baseline": 39674.3669 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 39527.6798, "lower": 37631.797, "upper": 41423.5626, "baseline": 39527.6798 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 39025.5608, "lower": 37115.15, "upper": 40935.9717, "baseline": 39025.5608 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 38191.7528, "lower": 36266.9235, "upper": 40116.5821, "baseline": 38191.7528 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 37083.9815, "lower": 35144.841, "upper": 39023.122, "baseline": 37083.9815 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 35790.4758, "lower": 33837.1289, "upper": 37743.8226, "baseline": 35790.4758 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 34418.1483, "lower": 32450.6977, "upper": 36385.5989, "baseline": 34418.1483 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 32932.9545, "lower": 30951.5005, "upper": 34914.4085, "baseline": 32932.9545 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 31717.8579, "lower": 29722.4988, "upper": 33713.217, "baseline": 31717.8579 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 30704.7345, "lower": 28695.5666, "upper": 32713.9025, "baseline": 30704.7345 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 29946.6934, "lower": 27923.8108, "upper": 31969.576, "baseline": 29946.6934 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 29479.5611, "lower": 27443.0563, "upper": 31516.0659, "baseline": 29479.5611 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 29327.0605, "lower": 27277.0239, "upper": 31377.0971, "baseline": 29327.0605 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 29502.0637, "lower": 27438.5841, "upper": 31565.5433, "baseline": 29502.0637 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 30002.6566, "lower": 27925.821, "upper": 32079.4922, "baseline": 30002.6566 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 30805.5052, "lower": 28715.399, "upper": 32895.6115, "baseline": 30805.5052 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 31861.1794, "lower": 29757.8862, "upper": 33964.4725, "baseline": 31861.1794 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 33095.4096, "lower": 30979.0117, "upper": 35211.8075, "baseline": 33095.4096 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 34417.166, "lower": 32287.7439, "upper": 36546.588, "baseline": 34417.166 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 35730.7969, "lower": 33588.4299, "upper": 37873.1638, "baseline": 35730.7969 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 36947.4196, "lower": 34792.1855, "upper": 39102.6537, "baseline": 36947.4196 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 37991.5023, "lower": 35823.4774, "upper": 40159.5273, "baseline": 37991.5023 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 38801.6406, "lower": 36620.8998, "upper": 40982.3814, "baseline": 38801.6406 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 39328.0484, "lower": 37134.6656, "upper": 41521.4313, "baseline": 39328.0484 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 39531.1201, "lower": 37325.1676, "upper": 41737.0726, "baseline": 39531.1201 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 39384.433, "lower": 37165.9821, "upper": 41602.8839, "baseline": 39384.433 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 38882.314, "lower": 36651.4348, "upper": 41113.1933, "baseline": 38882.314 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 38048.506, "lower": 35805.2672, "upper": 40291.7448, "baseline": 38048.506 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 36940.7347, "lower": 34685.2041, "upper": 39196.2654, "baseline": 36940.7347 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 35647.229, "lower": 33379.4732, "upper": 37914.9848, "baseline": 35647.229 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 34274.9015, "lower": 31994.9861, "upper": 36554.817, "baseline": 34274.9015 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 33258.2511, "lower": 30966.2405, "upper": 35550.2617, "baseline": 33258.2511 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 1152.0211 }, "backtest": { "mae": 891.8668, "rmse": 1071.2447, "baseline_mae": 4843.1667, "skill": 0.8159, "wape_pct": 3.022, "interval_coverage_pct": 89.58, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 28592.439, "predicted": 26901.4765 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 25969.788, "predicted": 25889.4728 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 25251.263, "predicted": 25134.104 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 23576.722, "predicted": 24670.6306 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 25151.978, "predicted": 24521.4257 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 25547.729, "predicted": 24697.9528 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 26325.061, "predicted": 25197.6589 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 26398.262, "predicted": 25997.7776 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 27670.074, "predicted": 27050.4148 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 27128.269, "predicted": 28283.0019 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 29730.826, "predicted": 29605.4424 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 29884.982, "predicted": 30921.7179 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 32393.561, "predicted": 32141.4519 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 33260.363, "predicted": 33187.284 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 34963.63, "predicted": 33996.619 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 34474.145, "predicted": 34519.7364 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 35013.819, "predicted": 34718.2813 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 33469.231, "predicted": 34567.5698 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 34243.29, "predicted": 34063.2375 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 34371.047, "predicted": 33229.2905 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 31276.314, "predicted": 32122.687 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 32707.891, "predicted": 30830.456 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 28589.958, "predicted": 29458.6754 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 26546.78, "predicted": 28077.8214 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 28146.156, "predicted": 26862.7136 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 25338.694, "predicted": 25850.7098 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 24631.113, "predicted": 25095.341 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 23910.489, "predicted": 24631.8676 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 23241.896, "predicted": 24482.6627 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 22196.772, "predicted": 24659.1898 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 26742.193, "predicted": 25158.896 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 24037.036, "predicted": 25959.0146 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 25401.779, "predicted": 27011.6519 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 27897.304, "predicted": 28244.2389 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 30559.749, "predicted": 29566.6794 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 30232.715, "predicted": 30882.9549 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 33178.187, "predicted": 32102.6889 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 31622.852, "predicted": 33148.521 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 33128.002, "predicted": 33957.8561 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 32489.89, "predicted": 34480.9734 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 34079.424, "predicted": 34679.5184 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 35711.027, "predicted": 34528.8069 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 35257.312, "predicted": 34024.4745 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 32396.064, "predicted": 33190.5275 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 32034.576, "predicted": 32083.924 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 29368.505, "predicted": 30791.693 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 29473.18, "predicted": 29419.9124 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 33012.845, "predicted": 32854.5205 } ] } }, "solar_mw": { "target": "solar_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1568.0243, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1600.3581, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1632.0514, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1663.1409, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 347.2304, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2040.8901, "baseline": 347.2304 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 1745.3716, "lower": 21.7333, "upper": 3469.01, "baseline": 1745.3716 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 3487.5153, "lower": 1734.4109, "upper": 5240.6197, "baseline": 3487.5153 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 5282.6033, "lower": 3500.52, "upper": 7064.6866, "baseline": 5282.6033 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 6863.1667, "lower": 5052.5683, "upper": 8673.7652, "baseline": 6863.1667 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 8057.8449, "lower": 6219.1735, "upper": 9896.5163, "baseline": 8057.8449 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 8797.8032, "lower": 6931.4811, "upper": 10664.1254, "baseline": 8797.8032 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 9071.0952, "lower": 7177.526, "upper": 10964.6644, "baseline": 9071.0952 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 8869.0699, "lower": 6948.6402, "upper": 10789.4995, "baseline": 8869.0699 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 8168.8876, "lower": 6221.968, "upper": 10115.8072, "baseline": 8168.8876 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 6967.1993, "lower": 4994.1454, "upper": 8940.2532, "baseline": 6967.1993 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 5341.0159, "lower": 3342.1694, "upper": 7339.8625, "baseline": 5341.0159 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 3487.8639, "lower": 1463.5533, "upper": 5512.1746, "baseline": 3487.8639 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 1704.4936, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3753.9519, "baseline": 1704.4936 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 298.667, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2372.9681, "baseline": 298.667 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2098.8499, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2123.1149, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2147.1056, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2170.8313, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2194.3004, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2217.5212, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2240.5013, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2263.2481, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2285.7685, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 326.3535, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2634.4227, "baseline": 326.3535 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 1724.4948, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4054.6513, "baseline": 1724.4948 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 3466.6385, "lower": 1114.6021, "upper": 5818.6748, "baseline": 3466.6385 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 5261.7264, "lower": 2888.0118, "upper": 7635.441, "baseline": 5261.7264 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 6842.2899, "lower": 4447.0933, "upper": 9237.4865, "baseline": 6842.2899 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 8036.968, "lower": 5620.4804, "upper": 10453.4557, "baseline": 8036.968 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 8776.9264, "lower": 6339.3336, "upper": 11214.5191, "baseline": 8776.9264 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 9050.2183, "lower": 6591.7016, "upper": 11508.735, "baseline": 9050.2183 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 8848.193, "lower": 6368.929, "upper": 11327.457, "baseline": 8848.193 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 8148.0108, "lower": 5648.1716, "upper": 10647.85, "baseline": 8148.0108 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 6946.3225, "lower": 4426.0761, "upper": 9466.5688, "baseline": 6946.3225 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 5320.1391, "lower": 2779.6494, "upper": 7860.6287, "baseline": 5320.1391 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 3466.9871, "lower": 906.4142, "upper": 6027.56, "baseline": 3466.9871 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 1683.6167, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4264.1166, "baseline": 1683.6167 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 277.7901, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2878.0642, "baseline": 277.7901 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2619.899, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2639.3781, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2658.7145, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2677.9112, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2696.9713, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2715.8977, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2734.693, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2753.3601, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2771.9015, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 290.9998, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3081.3194, "baseline": 290.9998 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 1689.141, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4497.758, "baseline": 1689.141 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 3431.2847, "lower": 604.4888, "upper": 6258.0806, "baseline": 3431.2847 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 5226.3727, "lower": 2381.514, "upper": 8071.2314, "baseline": 5226.3727 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 6806.9361, "lower": 3944.1286, "upper": 9669.7436, "baseline": 6806.9361 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 8001.6143, "lower": 5120.9698, "upper": 10882.2588, "baseline": 8001.6143 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 8741.5726, "lower": 5843.2009, "upper": 11639.9443, "baseline": 8741.5726 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 9014.8646, "lower": 6098.8734, "upper": 11930.8557, "baseline": 9014.8646 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 8812.8393, "lower": 5879.3345, "upper": 11746.344, "baseline": 8812.8393 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 8112.657, "lower": 5161.7426, "upper": 11063.5715, "baseline": 8112.657 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 6910.9687, "lower": 3942.7467, "upper": 9879.1907, "baseline": 6910.9687 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 5284.7853, "lower": 2299.3561, "upper": 8270.2146, "baseline": 5284.7853 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 3431.6333, "lower": 429.0955, "upper": 6434.1712, "baseline": 3431.6333 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 1648.263, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4667.8125, "baseline": 1648.263 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 242.4364, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3278.9023, "baseline": 242.4364 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3053.2886, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3070.019, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3086.6588, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3103.2094, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3119.6722, "baseline": 0.0 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 1568.0243 }, "backtest": { "mae": 459.3724, "rmse": 774.4789, "baseline_mae": 706.0724, "skill": 0.3494, "wape_pct": 13.35, "interval_coverage_pct": 95.83, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 380.4685 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 813.203, "predicted": 1784.8511 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 2811.912, "predicted": 3523.7524 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 4767.401, "predicted": 5305.3906 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 7019.926, "predicted": 6866.3552 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 7465.994, "predicted": 8042.6325 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 9710.652, "predicted": 8772.7286 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 10262.606, "predicted": 9048.5987 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 9391.646, "predicted": 8860.2697 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 9130.419, "predicted": 8179.1264 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 6827.165, "predicted": 6994.4667 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 5563.19, "predicted": 5377.7952 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 3415.685, "predicted": 3525.1732 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 910.133, "predicted": 1735.8714 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 322.117 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 322.4708 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 953.989, "predicted": 1726.8534 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 3946.67, "predicted": 3465.7547 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 6389.053, "predicted": 5247.3929 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 8396.023, "predicted": 6808.3575 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 10430.102, "predicted": 7984.6349 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 11426.583, "predicted": 8714.7309 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 10696.013, "predicted": 8990.6011 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 9168.924, "predicted": 8802.272 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 8369.907, "predicted": 8121.1287 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 6905.678, "predicted": 6936.469 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 5905.34, "predicted": 5319.7975 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 3545.444, "predicted": 3467.1755 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 947.255, "predicted": 1677.8737 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 264.1193 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 } ] } }, "price_mwh": { "target": "price_mwh", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 86.2466, "lower": 74.5768, "upper": 97.9165, "baseline": 86.2466 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 85.7734, "lower": 73.8629, "upper": 97.6839, "baseline": 85.7734 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 85.2001, "lower": 73.0537, "upper": 97.3464, "baseline": 85.2001 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 83.3144, "lower": 70.9366, "upper": 95.6921, "baseline": 83.3144 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 79.2923, "lower": 66.6874, "upper": 91.8972, "baseline": 79.2923 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 73.1093, "lower": 60.2812, "upper": 85.9373, "baseline": 73.1093 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 65.5546, "lower": 52.5072, "upper": 78.6019, "baseline": 65.5546 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 57.8837, "lower": 44.6207, "upper": 71.1467, "baseline": 57.8837 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 51.3259, "lower": 37.8507, "upper": 64.8011, "baseline": 51.3259 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 46.711, "lower": 33.0269, "upper": 60.3952, "baseline": 46.711 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 44.3782, "lower": 30.4883, "upper": 58.2681, "baseline": 44.3782 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 44.3407, "lower": 30.248, "upper": 58.4334, "baseline": 44.3407 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 46.5332, "lower": 32.2405, "upper": 60.8258, "baseline": 46.5332 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 50.9337, "lower": 36.444, "upper": 65.4235, "baseline": 50.9337 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 57.4642, "lower": 42.7799, "upper": 72.1484, "baseline": 57.4642 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 65.7405, "lower": 50.8643, "upper": 80.6168, "baseline": 65.7405 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 74.8745, "lower": 59.8087, "upper": 89.9402, "baseline": 74.8745 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 83.5208, "lower": 68.2679, "upper": 98.7738, "baseline": 83.5208 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 90.2303, "lower": 74.7925, "upper": 105.6681, "baseline": 90.2303 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 93.9738, "lower": 78.3534, "upper": 109.5943, "baseline": 93.9738 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 94.5746, "lower": 78.7735, "upper": 110.3757, "baseline": 94.5746 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 92.7987, "lower": 76.8191, "upper": 108.7784, "baseline": 92.7987 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 90.0197, "lower": 73.8635, "upper": 106.176, "baseline": 90.0197 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 85.4832, "lower": 69.1523, "upper": 101.8141, "baseline": 85.4832 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 84.136, "lower": 67.6323, "upper": 100.6397, "baseline": 84.136 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 83.6627, "lower": 66.988, "upper": 100.3374, "baseline": 83.6627 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 83.0894, "lower": 66.2454, "upper": 99.9334, "baseline": 83.0894 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 81.2037, "lower": 64.192, "upper": 98.2153, "baseline": 81.2037 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 77.1816, "lower": 60.004, "upper": 94.3592, "baseline": 77.1816 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 70.9986, "lower": 53.6566, "upper": 88.3405, "baseline": 70.9986 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 63.4439, "lower": 45.9391, "upper": 80.9487, "baseline": 63.4439 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 55.773, "lower": 38.1069, "upper": 73.4392, "baseline": 55.773 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 49.2152, "lower": 31.3891, "upper": 67.0412, "baseline": 49.2152 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 44.6004, "lower": 26.6159, "upper": 62.5848, "baseline": 44.6004 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 42.2675, "lower": 24.1259, "upper": 60.4091, "baseline": 42.2675 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 42.23, "lower": 23.9327, "upper": 60.5273, "baseline": 42.23 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 44.4225, "lower": 25.9708, "upper": 62.8742, "baseline": 44.4225 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 48.8231, "lower": 30.2182, "upper": 67.4279, "baseline": 48.8231 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 55.3535, "lower": 36.5968, "upper": 74.1102, "baseline": 55.3535 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 63.6299, "lower": 44.7225, "upper": 82.5372, "baseline": 63.6299 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 72.7638, "lower": 53.707, "upper": 91.8206, "baseline": 72.7638 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 81.4102, "lower": 62.205, "upper": 100.6153, "baseline": 81.4102 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 88.1196, "lower": 68.7673, "upper": 107.4719, "baseline": 88.1196 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 91.8632, "lower": 72.3648, "upper": 111.3615, "baseline": 91.8632 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 92.4639, "lower": 72.8206, "upper": 112.1072, "baseline": 92.4639 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 90.6881, "lower": 70.9008, "upper": 110.4753, "baseline": 90.6881 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 87.909, "lower": 67.9789, "upper": 107.8392, "baseline": 87.909 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 85.564, "lower": 65.492, "upper": 105.636, "baseline": 85.564 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 84.2168, "lower": 64.0039, "upper": 104.4296, "baseline": 84.2168 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 83.7435, "lower": 63.3908, "upper": 104.0962, "baseline": 83.7435 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 83.1702, "lower": 62.6785, "upper": 103.6618, "baseline": 83.1702 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 81.2845, "lower": 60.6549, "upper": 101.9141, "baseline": 81.2845 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 77.2624, "lower": 56.4957, "upper": 98.0291, "baseline": 77.2624 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 71.0794, "lower": 50.1765, "upper": 91.9823, "baseline": 71.0794 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 63.5247, "lower": 42.4865, "upper": 84.5628, "baseline": 63.5247 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 55.8538, "lower": 34.6812, "upper": 77.0264, "baseline": 55.8538 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 49.296, "lower": 27.9898, "upper": 70.6022, "baseline": 49.296 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 44.6812, "lower": 23.2422, "upper": 66.1201, "baseline": 44.6812 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 42.3483, "lower": 20.7774, "upper": 63.9192, "baseline": 42.3483 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 42.3108, "lower": 20.6088, "upper": 64.0128, "baseline": 42.3108 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 44.5033, "lower": 22.6709, "upper": 66.3356, "baseline": 44.5033 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 48.9039, "lower": 26.942, "upper": 70.8658, "baseline": 48.9039 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 55.4343, "lower": 33.3436, "upper": 77.525, "baseline": 55.4343 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 63.7107, "lower": 41.4919, "upper": 85.9294, "baseline": 63.7107 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 72.8446, "lower": 50.4985, "upper": 95.1907, "baseline": 72.8446 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 81.491, "lower": 59.0182, "upper": 103.9637, "baseline": 81.491 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 88.2004, "lower": 65.6018, "upper": 110.7991, "baseline": 88.2004 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 91.944, "lower": 69.2202, "upper": 114.6678, "baseline": 91.944 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 92.5447, "lower": 69.6964, "upper": 115.393, "baseline": 92.5447 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 90.7689, "lower": 67.7967, "upper": 113.741, "baseline": 90.7689 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 87.9899, "lower": 64.8945, "upper": 111.0852, "baseline": 87.9899 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 88.922, "lower": 65.7041, "upper": 112.1399, "baseline": 88.922 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 11.6699 }, "backtest": { "mae": 7.6937, "rmse": 9.5716, "baseline_mae": 13.7292, "skill": 0.4396, "wape_pct": 11.976, "interval_coverage_pct": 91.67, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 77.673, "predicted": 81.0231 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 72.772, "predicted": 80.6235 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 78.942, "predicted": 80.0394 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 72.519, "predicted": 78.0755 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 84.384, "predicted": 73.9621 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 76.716, "predicted": 67.7366 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 53.122, "predicted": 60.2248 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 67.63, "predicted": 52.6732 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 36.891, "predicted": 46.2621 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 42.187, "predicted": 41.7586 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 28.461, "predicted": 39.4583 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 28.958, "predicted": 39.3711 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 39.081, "predicted": 41.4658 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 29.115, "predicted": 45.7694 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 46.335, "predicted": 52.2384 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 49.754, "predicted": 60.4909 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 74.905, "predicted": 69.6119 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 86.811, "predicted": 78.2219 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 81.857, "predicted": 84.8565 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 93.013, "predicted": 88.504 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 96.467, "predicted": 89.0304 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 97.587, "predicted": 87.2452 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 89.396, "predicted": 84.538 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 82.44, "predicted": 83.437 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 78.061, "predicted": 82.2196 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 72.482, "predicted": 81.82 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 71.768, "predicted": 81.2359 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 74.197, "predicted": 79.272 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 66.831, "predicted": 75.1585 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 60.332, "predicted": 68.9331 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 59.374, "predicted": 61.4213 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 45.083, "predicted": 53.8697 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 33.418, "predicted": 47.4585 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 12.095, "predicted": 42.955 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 22.662, "predicted": 40.6547 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 41.182, "predicted": 40.5676 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 23.601, "predicted": 42.6623 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 57.864, "predicted": 46.9659 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 50.593, "predicted": 53.4348 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 52.857, "predicted": 61.6873 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 58.35, "predicted": 70.8083 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 82.063, "predicted": 79.4184 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 89.703, "predicted": 86.053 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 89.16, "predicted": 89.7004 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 82.512, "predicted": 90.2268 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 90.025, "predicted": 88.4417 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 90.194, "predicted": 85.7344 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 92.286, "predicted": 88.2105 } ] } } } }, { "id": "NL:NL", "country": "NL", "country_name": "Netherlands", "zone": "NL", "timezone": "Europe/Amsterdam", "currency": "EUR", "source_kind": "synthetic", "history": { "rows": 1344, "first": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "frequency": "1 hour", "timebase": "UTC timestamps; local market time for model features" }, "results": { "load_mw": { "target": "load_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 10142.897, "lower": 9718.4555, "upper": 10567.3384, "baseline": 10142.897 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 9893.9047, "lower": 9460.711, "upper": 10327.0984, "baseline": 9893.9047 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 9739.174, "lower": 9297.4014, "upper": 10180.9466, "baseline": 9739.174 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 9682.2116, "lower": 9232.0234, "upper": 10132.3997, "baseline": 9682.2116 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 9727.2478, "lower": 9268.7987, "upper": 10185.6969, "baseline": 9727.2478 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 9878.8183, "lower": 9412.2544, "upper": 10345.3822, "baseline": 9878.8183 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 10136.9335, "lower": 9662.3935, "upper": 10611.4734, "baseline": 10136.9335 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 10490.8324, "lower": 10008.4483, "upper": 10973.2165, "baseline": 10490.8324 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 10915.4551, "lower": 10425.3524, "upper": 11405.5578, "baseline": 10915.4551 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 11373.4403, "lower": 10875.7386, "upper": 11871.142, "baseline": 11373.4403 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 11822.4116, "lower": 11317.2252, "upper": 12327.5979, "baseline": 11822.4116 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 12224.3325, "lower": 11711.7708, "upper": 12736.8942, "baseline": 12224.3325 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 12552.5231, "lower": 12032.6906, "upper": 13072.3555, "baseline": 12552.5231 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 12793.2505, "lower": 12266.2476, "upper": 13320.2534, "baseline": 12793.2505 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 12941.8686, "lower": 12407.7915, "upper": 13475.9457, "baseline": 12941.8686 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 12996.5086, "lower": 12455.4499, "upper": 13537.5674, "baseline": 12996.5086 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 12953.5624, "lower": 12405.6109, "upper": 13501.5139, "baseline": 12953.5624 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 12807.9343, "lower": 12253.1756, "upper": 13362.6929, "baseline": 12807.9343 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 12558.0217, "lower": 11996.5384, "upper": 13119.5049, "baseline": 12558.0217 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 12212.3876, "lower": 11644.2594, "upper": 12780.5158, "baseline": 12212.3876 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 11793.8774, "lower": 11219.181, "upper": 12368.5738, "baseline": 11793.8774 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 11338.2147, "lower": 10757.0243, "upper": 11919.405, "baseline": 11338.2147 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 10961.4783, "lower": 10373.8658, "upper": 11549.0909, "baseline": 10961.4783 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 10553.615, "lower": 9959.6497, "upper": 11147.5803, "baseline": 10553.615 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 10217.2219, "lower": 9616.9711, "upper": 10817.4727, "baseline": 10217.2219 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 9968.2296, "lower": 9361.7584, "upper": 10574.7008, "baseline": 9968.2296 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 9813.4989, "lower": 9200.8705, "upper": 10426.1273, "baseline": 9813.4989 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 9756.5365, "lower": 9137.8121, "upper": 10375.2608, "baseline": 9756.5365 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 9801.5727, "lower": 9176.8119, "upper": 10426.3336, "baseline": 9801.5727 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 9953.1432, "lower": 9322.4037, "upper": 10583.8828, "baseline": 9953.1432 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 10211.2584, "lower": 9574.5963, "upper": 10847.9205, "baseline": 10211.2584 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 10565.1573, "lower": 9922.6272, "upper": 11207.6874, "baseline": 10565.1573 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 10989.78, "lower": 10341.4351, "upper": 11638.125, "baseline": 10989.78 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 11447.7652, "lower": 10793.6571, "upper": 12101.8734, "baseline": 11447.7652 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 11896.7365, "lower": 11236.9155, "upper": 12556.5575, "baseline": 11896.7365 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 12298.6574, "lower": 11633.1726, "upper": 12964.1422, "baseline": 12298.6574 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 12626.848, "lower": 11955.7472, "upper": 13297.9488, "baseline": 12626.848 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 12867.5754, "lower": 12190.9052, "upper": 13544.2456, "baseline": 12867.5754 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 13016.1935, "lower": 12333.9994, "upper": 13698.3877, "baseline": 13016.1935 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 13070.8336, "lower": 12383.1599, "upper": 13758.5073, "baseline": 13070.8336 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 13027.8873, "lower": 12334.7774, "upper": 13720.9972, "baseline": 13027.8873 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 12882.2592, "lower": 12183.7553, "upper": 13580.7631, "baseline": 12882.2592 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 12632.3466, "lower": 11928.4901, "upper": 13336.203, "baseline": 12632.3466 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 12286.7125, "lower": 11577.5439, "upper": 12995.8812, "baseline": 12286.7125 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 11868.2024, "lower": 11153.761, "upper": 12582.6437, "baseline": 11868.2024 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 11412.5396, "lower": 10692.8642, "upper": 12132.2151, "baseline": 11412.5396 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 10937.6764, "lower": 10212.8047, "upper": 11662.5481, "baseline": 10937.6764 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 10529.8131, "lower": 9799.7821, "upper": 11259.8441, "baseline": 10529.8131 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 10193.42, "lower": 9458.2659, "upper": 10928.5741, "baseline": 10193.42 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 9944.4277, "lower": 9204.186, "upper": 10684.6694, "baseline": 9944.4277 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 9789.697, "lower": 9044.4024, "upper": 10534.9916, "baseline": 9789.697 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 9732.7346, "lower": 8982.421, "upper": 10483.0481, "baseline": 9732.7346 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 9777.7708, "lower": 9022.4718, "upper": 10533.0699, "baseline": 9777.7708 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 9929.3413, "lower": 9169.0894, "upper": 10689.5932, "baseline": 9929.3413 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 10187.4565, "lower": 9422.2838, "upper": 10952.6291, "baseline": 10187.4565 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 10541.3554, "lower": 9771.2934, "upper": 11311.4173, "baseline": 10541.3554 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 10965.9781, "lower": 10191.0577, "upper": 11740.8986, "baseline": 10965.9781 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 11423.9633, "lower": 10644.2146, "upper": 12203.712, "baseline": 11423.9633 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 11872.9346, "lower": 11088.3874, "upper": 12657.4818, "baseline": 11872.9346 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 12274.8555, "lower": 11485.539, "upper": 13064.172, "baseline": 12274.8555 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 12603.0461, "lower": 11808.9889, "upper": 13397.1033, "baseline": 12603.0461 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 12843.7735, "lower": 12045.0038, "upper": 13642.5432, "baseline": 12843.7735 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 12992.3916, "lower": 12188.937, "upper": 13795.8463, "baseline": 12992.3916 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 13047.0316, "lower": 12238.9193, "upper": 13855.144, "baseline": 13047.0316 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 13004.0854, "lower": 12191.3419, "upper": 13816.8288, "baseline": 13004.0854 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 12858.4573, "lower": 12041.109, "upper": 13675.8055, "baseline": 12858.4573 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 12608.5447, "lower": 11786.6174, "upper": 13430.4719, "baseline": 12608.5447 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 12262.9106, "lower": 11436.4297, "upper": 13089.3915, "baseline": 12262.9106 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 11844.4004, "lower": 11013.3908, "upper": 12675.41, "baseline": 11844.4004 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 11388.7377, "lower": 10553.2239, "upper": 12224.2515, "baseline": 11388.7377 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 11038.8366, "lower": 10198.8429, "upper": 11878.8304, "baseline": 11038.8366 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 10630.9733, "lower": 9786.5233, "upper": 11475.4233, "baseline": 10630.9733 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 424.4414 }, "backtest": { "mae": 278.4717, "rmse": 357.1851, "baseline_mae": 1622.1786, "skill": 0.8283, "wape_pct": 2.837, "interval_coverage_pct": 89.58, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 8193.358, "predicted": 8561.2333 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 8239.105, "predicted": 8310.3735 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 7914.724, "predicted": 8153.1934 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 7909.553, "predicted": 8094.7208 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 8200.309, "predicted": 8139.7954 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 8804.169, "predicted": 8292.3325 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 8374.376, "predicted": 8550.9945 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 8161.077, "predicted": 8903.9398 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 9422.319, "predicted": 9326.1435 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 9799.761, "predicted": 9781.5421 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 10459.882, "predicted": 10229.6331 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 11496.492, "predicted": 10633.6881 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 10450.434, "predicted": 10966.8506 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 10687.371, "predicted": 11213.6055 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 11025.528, "predicted": 11366.7218 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 10657.509, "predicted": 11422.2609 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 11292.24, "predicted": 11376.1689 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 11371.898, "predicted": 11224.8033 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 10793.272, "predicted": 10969.1876 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 10613.313, "predicted": 10620.3473 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 10638.092, "predicted": 10202.2072 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 9880.14, "predicted": 9749.7421 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 9125.433, "predicted": 9335.8504 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 8612.865, "predicted": 8930.624 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 8491.082, "predicted": 8594.4152 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 8325.366, "predicted": 8343.5553 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 8125.476, "predicted": 8186.3753 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 8498.924, "predicted": 8127.9026 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 7913.232, "predicted": 8172.9773 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 8839.729, "predicted": 8325.5143 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 8479.439, "predicted": 8584.1763 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 8432.868, "predicted": 8937.1216 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 9963.944, "predicted": 9359.3254 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 10642.488, "predicted": 9814.724 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 10152.248, "predicted": 10262.815 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 10341.584, "predicted": 10666.8699 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 10841.384, "predicted": 11000.0324 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 11601.253, "predicted": 11246.7873 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 11123.083, "predicted": 11399.9037 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 11300.827, "predicted": 11455.4428 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 11233.788, "predicted": 11409.3507 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 11433.931, "predicted": 11257.9851 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 10713.148, "predicted": 11002.3694 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 10772.851, "predicted": 10653.5291 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 10252.857, "predicted": 10235.3891 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 9688.689, "predicted": 9782.924 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 11378.979, "predicted": 10889.0899 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 10447.137, "predicted": 10483.8635 } ] } }, "solar_mw": { "target": "solar_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1033.4517, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1054.7622, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1075.6506, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 171.8275, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1267.9685, "baseline": 171.8275 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 1125.9932, "lower": 9.7378, "upper": 2242.2486, "baseline": 1125.9932 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 2312.0555, "lower": 1176.0418, "upper": 3448.0691, "baseline": 2312.0555 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 3515.962, "lower": 2360.5279, "upper": 4671.3961, "baseline": 3515.962 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 4546.8424, "lower": 3372.3089, "upper": 5721.3759, "baseline": 4546.8424 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 5294.0791, "lower": 4100.7519, "upper": 6487.4063, "baseline": 5294.0791 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 5731.3756, "lower": 4519.5461, "upper": 6943.2051, "baseline": 5731.3756 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 5876.8427, "lower": 4646.7892, "upper": 7106.8962, "baseline": 5876.8427 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 5743.564, "lower": 4495.5525, "upper": 6991.5754, "baseline": 5743.564 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 5317.638, "lower": 4051.9234, "upper": 6583.3527, "baseline": 5317.638 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 4579.5708, "lower": 3296.3972, "upper": 5862.7444, "baseline": 4579.5708 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 3553.7118, "lower": 2253.3136, "upper": 4854.1099, "baseline": 3553.7118 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 2348.9104, "lower": 1031.5128, "upper": 3666.3079, "baseline": 2348.9104 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 1155.568, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2489.7484, "baseline": 1155.568 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 189.3586, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1540.1133, "baseline": 189.3586 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1367.1281, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1383.3077, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1399.3002, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1415.112, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1430.7491, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1446.2171, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1461.5214, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1476.6671, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1491.659, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 149.7522, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1656.254, "baseline": 149.7522 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 1103.9179, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2625.1176, "baseline": 1103.9179 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 2289.9802, "lower": 754.2232, "upper": 3825.7371, "baseline": 2289.9802 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 3493.8867, "lower": 1943.7092, "upper": 5044.0642, "baseline": 3493.8867 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 4524.7671, "lower": 2960.302, "upper": 6089.2323, "baseline": 4524.7671 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 5272.0038, "lower": 3693.3803, "upper": 6850.6273, "baseline": 5272.0038 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 5709.3003, "lower": 4116.6443, "upper": 7301.9563, "baseline": 5709.3003 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 5854.7674, "lower": 4248.2015, "upper": 7461.3334, "baseline": 5854.7674 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 5721.4887, "lower": 4101.1323, "upper": 7341.8451, "baseline": 5721.4887 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 5295.5627, "lower": 3661.5322, "upper": 6929.5933, "baseline": 5295.5627 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 4557.4955, "lower": 2909.9043, "upper": 6205.0867, "baseline": 4557.4955 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 3531.6365, "lower": 1870.5953, "upper": 5192.6776, "baseline": 3531.6365 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 2326.8351, "lower": 652.452, "upper": 4001.2182, "baseline": 2326.8351 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 1133.4927, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2821.1122, "baseline": 1133.4927 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 167.2834, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1868.0363, "baseline": 167.2834 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1713.7857, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1726.7201, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1739.5584, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1752.3026, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1764.9547, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1777.5169, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1789.9908, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1802.3784, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1814.6815, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 164.0791, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1990.9808, "baseline": 164.0791 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 1118.2448, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2957.2855, "baseline": 1118.2448 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 2304.3071, "lower": 453.2069, "upper": 4155.4072, "baseline": 2304.3071 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 3508.2136, "lower": 1645.1321, "upper": 5371.2951, "baseline": 3508.2136 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 4539.094, "lower": 2664.1077, "upper": 6414.0803, "baseline": 4539.094 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 5286.3307, "lower": 3399.5147, "upper": 7173.1467, "baseline": 5286.3307 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 5723.6272, "lower": 3825.0552, "upper": 7622.1991, "baseline": 5723.6272 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 5869.0943, "lower": 3958.8387, "upper": 7779.3499, "baseline": 5869.0943 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 5735.8156, "lower": 3813.9474, "upper": 7657.6838, "baseline": 5735.8156 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 5309.8896, "lower": 3376.4786, "upper": 7243.3007, "baseline": 5309.8896 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 4571.8224, "lower": 2626.937, "upper": 6516.7078, "baseline": 4571.8224 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 3545.9634, "lower": 1589.6709, "upper": 5502.2558, "baseline": 3545.9634 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 2341.162, "lower": 373.5286, "upper": 4308.7953, "baseline": 2341.162 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 1147.8196, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3126.7289, "baseline": 1147.8196 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 181.6103, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2171.7316, "baseline": 181.6103 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2001.2706, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2012.358, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2023.3847, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2034.3517, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2045.2598, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2056.11, "baseline": 0.0 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 1033.4517 }, "backtest": { "mae": 351.6781, "rmse": 590.6212, "baseline_mae": 541.5999, "skill": 0.3507, "wape_pct": 15.194, "interval_coverage_pct": 93.75, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 191.1542 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 658.334, "predicted": 1153.2404 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 1877.518, "predicted": 2344.1504 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 3249.057, "predicted": 3545.5145 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 4567.916, "predicted": 4564.9455 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 6260.959, "predicted": 5294.5843 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 5801.112, "predicted": 5714.4091 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 7043.901, "predicted": 5849.5595 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 6971.544, "predicted": 5717.5196 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 5958.634, "predicted": 5303.9519 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 5379.441, "predicted": 4584.2542 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 3372.57, "predicted": 3575.4617 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 2088.161, "predicted": 2380.3654 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 534.068, "predicted": 1187.2058 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 213.9031 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 169.2487 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 525.759, "predicted": 1131.3349 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 2402.415, "predicted": 2322.245 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 3929.048, "predicted": 3523.609 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 4974.17, "predicted": 4543.04 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 5843.939, "predicted": 5272.6788 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 6457.653, "predicted": 5692.5036 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 7585.537, "predicted": 5827.6541 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 7413.482, "predicted": 5695.6141 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 6865.81, "predicted": 5282.0464 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 4548.661, "predicted": 4562.3487 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 3819.749, "predicted": 3553.5562 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 2281.912, "predicted": 2358.4599 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 686.234, "predicted": 1165.3004 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 191.9977 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 } ] } }, "price_mwh": { "target": "price_mwh", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 87.2735, "lower": 73.5835, "upper": 100.9635, "baseline": 87.2735 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 86.8686, "lower": 72.8964, "upper": 100.8409, "baseline": 86.8686 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 84.809, "lower": 70.5601, "upper": 99.058, "baseline": 84.809 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 80.3044, "lower": 65.784, "upper": 94.8248, "baseline": 80.3044 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 73.5264, "lower": 58.7395, "upper": 88.3132, "baseline": 73.5264 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 65.5334, "lower": 50.4849, "upper": 80.582, "baseline": 65.5334 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 57.7876, "lower": 42.4817, "upper": 73.0934, "baseline": 57.7876 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 51.5545, "lower": 35.9956, "upper": 67.1133, "baseline": 51.5545 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 47.5104, "lower": 31.7026, "upper": 63.3182, "baseline": 47.5104 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 45.7287, "lower": 29.6758, "upper": 61.7816, "baseline": 45.7287 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 45.98, "lower": 29.6857, "upper": 62.2743, "baseline": 45.98 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 48.0964, "lower": 31.5642, "upper": 64.6286, "baseline": 48.0964 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 52.1327, "lower": 35.366, "upper": 68.8994, "baseline": 52.1327 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 58.2087, "lower": 41.2107, "upper": 75.2067, "baseline": 58.2087 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 66.1451, "lower": 48.919, "upper": 83.3713, "baseline": 66.1451 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 75.1576, "lower": 57.7062, "upper": 92.6089, "baseline": 75.1576 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 83.8664, "lower": 66.1928, "upper": 101.5401, "baseline": 83.8664 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 90.696, "lower": 72.8028, "upper": 108.5892, "baseline": 90.696 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 94.4959, "lower": 76.3858, "upper": 112.606, "baseline": 94.4959 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 95.0578, "lower": 76.7334, "upper": 113.3823, "baseline": 95.0578 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 93.2251, "lower": 74.6888, "upper": 111.7614, "baseline": 93.2251 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 90.499, "lower": 71.7533, "upper": 109.2448, "baseline": 90.499 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 86.4172, "lower": 67.4644, "upper": 105.3701, "baseline": 86.4172 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 85.4642, "lower": 66.3064, "upper": 104.622, "baseline": 85.4642 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 85.3739, "lower": 66.0134, "upper": 104.7344, "baseline": 85.3739 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 84.969, "lower": 65.4079, "upper": 104.5302, "baseline": 84.969 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 82.9095, "lower": 63.1497, "upper": 102.6692, "baseline": 82.9095 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 78.4048, "lower": 58.4484, "upper": 98.3612, "baseline": 78.4048 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 71.6268, "lower": 51.4758, "upper": 91.7779, "baseline": 71.6268 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 63.6339, "lower": 43.29, "upper": 83.9778, "baseline": 63.6339 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 55.888, "lower": 35.353, "upper": 76.4229, "baseline": 55.888 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 49.6549, "lower": 28.9307, "upper": 70.3791, "baseline": 49.6549 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 45.6108, "lower": 24.6991, "upper": 66.5226, "baseline": 45.6108 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 43.8291, "lower": 22.7315, "upper": 64.9268, "baseline": 43.8291 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 44.0804, "lower": 22.7985, "upper": 65.3623, "baseline": 44.0804 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 46.1969, "lower": 24.7323, "upper": 67.6614, "baseline": 46.1969 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 50.2331, "lower": 28.5874, "upper": 71.8788, "baseline": 50.2331 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 56.3092, "lower": 34.4838, "upper": 78.1345, "baseline": 56.3092 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 64.2456, "lower": 42.242, "upper": 86.2491, "baseline": 64.2456 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 73.258, "lower": 51.0777, "upper": 95.4383, "baseline": 73.258 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 81.9669, "lower": 59.6113, "upper": 104.3225, "baseline": 81.9669 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 88.7964, "lower": 66.2668, "upper": 111.326, "baseline": 88.7964 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 92.5964, "lower": 69.8941, "upper": 115.2986, "baseline": 92.5964 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 93.1583, "lower": 70.2847, "upper": 116.0318, "baseline": 93.1583 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 91.3255, "lower": 68.2819, "upper": 114.3692, "baseline": 91.3255 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 88.5994, "lower": 65.387, "upper": 111.8119, "baseline": 88.5994 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 84.6842, "lower": 61.3041, "upper": 108.0642, "baseline": 84.6842 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 83.7311, "lower": 60.1847, "upper": 107.2776, "baseline": 83.7311 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 83.6408, "lower": 59.9291, "upper": 107.3525, "baseline": 83.6408 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 83.236, "lower": 59.3602, "upper": 107.1118, "baseline": 83.236 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 81.1764, "lower": 57.1376, "upper": 105.2152, "baseline": 81.1764 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 76.6717, "lower": 52.4711, "upper": 100.8724, "baseline": 76.6717 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 69.8937, "lower": 45.5323, "upper": 94.2552, "baseline": 69.8937 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 61.9008, "lower": 37.3796, "upper": 86.422, "baseline": 61.9008 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 54.1549, "lower": 29.475, "upper": 78.8348, "baseline": 54.1549 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 47.9218, "lower": 23.0842, "upper": 72.7594, "baseline": 47.9218 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 43.8777, "lower": 18.8834, "upper": 68.8721, "baseline": 43.8777 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 42.096, "lower": 16.946, "upper": 67.2461, "baseline": 42.096 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 42.3473, "lower": 17.0425, "upper": 67.6522, "baseline": 42.3473 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 44.4638, "lower": 19.0051, "upper": 69.9224, "baseline": 44.4638 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 48.5, "lower": 22.8884, "upper": 74.1116, "baseline": 48.5 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 54.5761, "lower": 28.8125, "upper": 80.3396, "baseline": 54.5761 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 62.5125, "lower": 36.5978, "upper": 88.4272, "baseline": 62.5125 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 71.5249, "lower": 45.46, "upper": 97.5898, "baseline": 71.5249 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 80.2338, "lower": 54.0195, "upper": 106.448, "baseline": 80.2338 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 87.0633, "lower": 60.7005, "upper": 113.4261, "baseline": 87.0633 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 90.8633, "lower": 64.3528, "upper": 117.3738, "baseline": 90.8633 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 91.4252, "lower": 64.7678, "upper": 118.0825, "baseline": 91.4252 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 89.5924, "lower": 62.789, "upper": 116.3959, "baseline": 89.5924 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 86.8664, "lower": 59.9177, "upper": 113.8151, "baseline": 86.8664 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 88.7162, "lower": 61.623, "upper": 115.8094, "baseline": 88.7162 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 87.7632, "lower": 60.5262, "upper": 115.0001, "baseline": 87.7632 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 13.69 }, "backtest": { "mae": 7.1002, "rmse": 8.7453, "baseline_mae": 12.1283, "skill": 0.4146, "wape_pct": 10.731, "interval_coverage_pct": 97.92, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 71.887, "predicted": 81.2376 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 74.013, "predicted": 80.7699 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 84.23, "predicted": 78.6069 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 87.197, "predicted": 73.9934 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 73.252, "predicted": 67.1493 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 69.126, "predicted": 59.1719 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 58.651, "predicted": 51.5324 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 38.536, "predicted": 45.4685 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 29.97, "predicted": 41.6015 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 40.12, "predicted": 39.947 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 31.563, "predicted": 40.2392 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 45.39, "predicted": 42.3098 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 48.27, "predicted": 46.2451 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 46.885, "predicted": 52.2107 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 52.89, "predicted": 60.0646 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 71.846, "predicted": 69.0374 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 88.621, "predicted": 77.7409 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 86.216, "predicted": 84.5797 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 89.209, "predicted": 88.3877 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 79.545, "predicted": 88.9537 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 94.782, "predicted": 87.1297 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 84.059, "predicted": 84.425 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 77.449, "predicted": 83.4894 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 88.421, "predicted": 82.5574 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 84.484, "predicted": 82.4536 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 74.464, "predicted": 81.9859 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 75.776, "predicted": 79.823 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 88.79, "predicted": 75.2095 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 75.934, "predicted": 68.3654 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 63.796, "predicted": 60.388 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 50.366, "predicted": 52.7485 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 36.844, "predicted": 46.6846 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 46.96, "predicted": 42.8176 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 37.94, "predicted": 41.163 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 23.207, "predicted": 41.4552 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 15.514, "predicted": 43.5259 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 30.445, "predicted": 47.4611 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 61.064, "predicted": 53.4267 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 55.268, "predicted": 61.2806 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 59.644, "predicted": 70.2534 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 85.666, "predicted": 78.957 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 90.44, "predicted": 85.7958 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 76.064, "predicted": 89.6037 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 86.144, "predicted": 90.1698 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 84.712, "predicted": 88.3458 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 90.531, "predicted": 85.6411 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 90.143, "predicted": 88.7421 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 79.73, "predicted": 87.8101 } ] } } } }, { "id": "FR:FR", "country": "FR", "country_name": "France", "zone": "FR", "timezone": "Europe/Paris", "currency": "EUR", "source_kind": "synthetic", "history": { "rows": 1344, "first": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "frequency": "1 hour", "timebase": "UTC timestamps; local market time for model features" }, "results": { "load_mw": { "target": "load_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 43816.0376, "lower": 42002.6174, "upper": 45629.4577, "baseline": 43816.0376 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 42678.5807, "lower": 40827.7666, "upper": 44529.3949, "baseline": 42678.5807 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 41919.5269, "lower": 40032.0594, "upper": 43806.9944, "baseline": 41919.5269 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 41618.9573, "lower": 39695.5348, "upper": 43542.3798, "baseline": 41618.9573 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 41838.6738, "lower": 39879.9562, "upper": 43797.3914, "baseline": 41838.6738 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 42592.7204, "lower": 40599.3325, "upper": 44586.1082, "baseline": 42592.7204 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 43828.2577, "lower": 41800.7924, "upper": 45855.723, "baseline": 43828.2577 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 45429.0534, "lower": 43368.074, "upper": 47490.0328, "baseline": 45429.0534 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 47241.67, "lower": 45147.7128, "upper": 49335.6272, "baseline": 47241.67 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 49112.0004, "lower": 46985.5768, "upper": 51238.4239, "baseline": 49112.0004 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 50914.3562, "lower": 48755.9545, "upper": 53072.7578, "baseline": 50914.3562 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 52560.0592, "lower": 50370.1463, "upper": 54749.972, "baseline": 52560.0592 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 53984.6499, "lower": 51763.6729, "upper": 56205.6269, "baseline": 53984.6499 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 55125.3048, "lower": 52873.6922, "upper": 57376.9174, "baseline": 55125.3048 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 55905.5458, "lower": 53623.7089, "upper": 58187.3828, "baseline": 55905.5458 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 56239.6147, "lower": 53927.9485, "upper": 58551.2808, "baseline": 56239.6147 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 56056.7332, "lower": 53715.6179, "upper": 58397.8485, "baseline": 56056.7332 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 55332.9877, "lower": 52962.7891, "upper": 57703.1863, "baseline": 55332.9877 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 54113.0983, "lower": 51714.1689, "upper": 56512.0276, "baseline": 54113.0983 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 52509.1045, "lower": 50081.7845, "upper": 54936.4245, "baseline": 52509.1045 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 50675.3007, "lower": 48219.9183, "upper": 53130.6831, "baseline": 50675.3007 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 48771.4711, "lower": 46288.3434, "upper": 51254.5989, "baseline": 48771.4711 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 47107.524, "lower": 44596.9575, "upper": 49618.0905, "baseline": 47107.524 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 45431.5199, "lower": 42893.8114, "upper": 47969.2284, "baseline": 45431.5199 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 43991.2813, "lower": 41426.718, "upper": 46555.8447, "baseline": 43991.2813 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 42853.8245, "lower": 40262.6847, "upper": 45444.9643, "baseline": 42853.8245 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 42094.7707, "lower": 39477.3242, "upper": 44712.2172, "baseline": 42094.7707 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 41794.201, "lower": 39150.7097, "upper": 44437.6924, "baseline": 41794.201 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 42013.9176, "lower": 39344.6355, "upper": 44683.1998, "baseline": 42013.9176 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 42767.9641, "lower": 40073.138, "upper": 45462.7902, "baseline": 42767.9641 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 44003.5015, "lower": 41283.3713, "upper": 46723.6317, "baseline": 44003.5015 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 45604.2972, "lower": 42859.0961, "upper": 48349.4982, "baseline": 45604.2972 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 47416.9138, "lower": 44646.8688, "upper": 50186.9587, "baseline": 47416.9138 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 49287.2441, "lower": 46492.576, "upper": 52081.9122, "baseline": 49287.2441 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 51089.6, "lower": 48270.5238, "upper": 53908.6761, "baseline": 51089.6 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 52735.303, "lower": 49892.0283, "upper": 55578.5776, "baseline": 52735.303 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 54159.8937, "lower": 51292.6247, "upper": 57027.1626, "baseline": 54159.8937 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 55300.5486, "lower": 52409.4845, "upper": 58191.6127, "baseline": 55300.5486 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 56080.7896, "lower": 53166.1246, "upper": 58995.4547, "baseline": 56080.7896 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 56414.8585, "lower": 53476.7821, "upper": 59352.9348, "baseline": 56414.8585 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 56231.977, "lower": 53270.6743, "upper": 59193.2796, "baseline": 56231.977 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 55508.2315, "lower": 52523.8834, "upper": 58492.5797, "baseline": 55508.2315 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 54288.3421, "lower": 51281.125, "upper": 57295.5591, "baseline": 54288.3421 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 52684.3483, "lower": 49654.4349, "upper": 55714.2616, "baseline": 52684.3483 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 50850.5445, "lower": 47798.1036, "upper": 53902.9854, "baseline": 50850.5445 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 48946.7149, "lower": 45871.9115, "upper": 52021.5183, "baseline": 48946.7149 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 46987.2938, "lower": 43890.2894, "upper": 50084.2983, "baseline": 46987.2938 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 45311.2897, "lower": 42192.2423, "upper": 48430.3372, "baseline": 45311.2897 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 43871.0512, "lower": 40730.1154, "upper": 47011.9869, "baseline": 43871.0512 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 42733.5943, "lower": 39570.9217, "upper": 45896.2669, "baseline": 42733.5943 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 41974.5405, "lower": 38790.2794, "upper": 45158.8016, "baseline": 41974.5405 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 41673.9709, "lower": 38468.2667, "upper": 44879.675, "baseline": 41673.9709 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 41893.6874, "lower": 38666.6827, "upper": 45120.6922, "baseline": 41893.6874 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 42647.734, "lower": 39399.5683, "upper": 45895.8996, "baseline": 42647.734 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 43883.2713, "lower": 40614.0817, "upper": 47152.4609, "baseline": 43883.2713 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 45484.067, "lower": 42193.9878, "upper": 48774.1462, "baseline": 45484.067 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 47296.6836, "lower": 43985.8466, "upper": 50607.5206, "baseline": 47296.6836 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 49167.014, "lower": 45835.5485, "upper": 52498.4794, "baseline": 49167.014 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 50969.3698, "lower": 47617.4028, "upper": 54321.3368, "baseline": 50969.3698 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 52615.0728, "lower": 49242.7289, "upper": 55987.4167, "baseline": 52615.0728 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 54039.6635, "lower": 50647.0651, "upper": 57432.2619, "baseline": 54039.6635 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 55180.3184, "lower": 51767.5857, "upper": 58593.0511, "baseline": 55180.3184 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 55960.5594, "lower": 52527.8106, "upper": 59393.3083, "baseline": 55960.5594 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 56294.6283, "lower": 52841.9792, "upper": 59747.2773, "baseline": 56294.6283 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 56111.7468, "lower": 52639.3116, "upper": 59584.182, "baseline": 56111.7468 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 55388.0013, "lower": 51895.8922, "upper": 58880.1105, "baseline": 55388.0013 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 54168.1119, "lower": 50656.4389, "upper": 57679.7848, "baseline": 54168.1119 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 52564.1181, "lower": 49032.9897, "upper": 56095.2464, "baseline": 52564.1181 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 50730.3143, "lower": 47179.8371, "upper": 54280.7915, "baseline": 50730.3143 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 48826.4847, "lower": 45256.7637, "upper": 52396.2058, "baseline": 48826.4847 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 47146.4526, "lower": 43557.5908, "upper": 50735.3144, "baseline": 47146.4526 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 45470.4485, "lower": 41862.5475, "upper": 49078.3495, "baseline": 45470.4485 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 1813.4201 }, "backtest": { "mae": 1193.6954, "rmse": 1570.468, "baseline_mae": 6379.8835, "skill": 0.8129, "wape_pct": 2.807, "interval_coverage_pct": 89.58, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 39214.285, "predicted": 36766.8631 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 36137.299, "predicted": 35638.0323 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 34278.676, "predicted": 34887.0806 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 34560.386, "predicted": 34591.6802 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 35985.804, "predicted": 34814.1726 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 35280.927, "predicted": 35571.1747 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 35932.572, "predicted": 36812.1366 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 38719.032, "predicted": 38420.6638 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 39831.416, "predicted": 40240.1621 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 41291.879, "predicted": 42111.9313 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 41932.457, "predicted": 43907.0738 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 46412.073, "predicted": 45537.4824 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 45884.001, "predicted": 46943.4879 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 50032.483, "predicted": 48069.3066 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 49018.215, "predicted": 48844.3206 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 51968.23, "predicted": 49184.4103 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 48166.026, "predicted": 49015.2598 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 49320.529, "predicted": 48305.9593 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 47183.004, "predicted": 47094.277 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 45582.108, "predicted": 45488.7619 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 42262.7, "predicted": 43645.2013 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 42062.168, "predicted": 41728.7428 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 44482.672, "predicted": 39951.1782 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 36811.935, "predicted": 38273.068 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 37094.288, "predicted": 36837.7829 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 36510.543, "predicted": 35708.9521 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 35485.863, "predicted": 34958.0004 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 37454.844, "predicted": 34662.6 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 34066.075, "predicted": 34885.0924 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 33781.031, "predicted": 35642.0945 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 35800.41, "predicted": 36883.0564 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 39077.185, "predicted": 38491.5836 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 42289.71, "predicted": 40311.0819 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 40641.329, "predicted": 42182.8511 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 43628.364, "predicted": 43977.9936 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 46675.553, "predicted": 45608.4022 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 47202.566, "predicted": 47014.4077 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 47461.222, "predicted": 48140.2264 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 52629.084, "predicted": 48915.2404 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 52153.419, "predicted": 49255.3301 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 46458.615, "predicted": 49086.1796 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 47862.481, "predicted": 48376.8791 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 47028.823, "predicted": 47165.1968 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 45958.372, "predicted": 45559.6817 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 46296.907, "predicted": 43716.1211 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 42974.373, "predicted": 41799.6626 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 44781.261, "predicted": 46856.6811 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 45786.437, "predicted": 45178.5709 } ] } }, "solar_mw": { "target": "solar_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1806.0684, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1843.3109, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1879.8156, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 236.8468, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2152.4717, "baseline": 236.8468 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 1849.8642, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3800.6411, "baseline": 1849.8642 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 3859.6261, "lower": 1874.3195, "upper": 5844.9327, "baseline": 3859.6261 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 5901.6732, "lower": 3882.4273, "upper": 7920.9191, "baseline": 5901.6732 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 7646.5555, "lower": 5593.9314, "upper": 9699.1796, "baseline": 7646.5555 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 8899.4884, "lower": 6814.0202, "upper": 10984.9566, "baseline": 8899.4884 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 9611.9061, "lower": 7494.1031, "upper": 11729.7091, "baseline": 9611.9061 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 9817.5026, "lower": 7667.8512, "upper": 11967.154, "baseline": 9817.5026 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 9548.7697, "lower": 7367.7349, "upper": 11729.8046, "baseline": 9548.7697 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 8796.1049, "lower": 6584.1318, "upper": 11008.078, "baseline": 8796.1049 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 7537.9974, "lower": 5295.5129, "upper": 9780.4819, "baseline": 7537.9974 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 5819.4045, "lower": 3546.8182, "upper": 8091.9908, "baseline": 5819.4045 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 3818.7437, "lower": 1516.4491, "upper": 6121.0383, "baseline": 3818.7437 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 1845.5261, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4177.1505, "baseline": 1845.5261 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 250.8121, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2611.4019, "baseline": 250.8121 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2389.204, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2417.4796, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2445.4282, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2473.0611, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2500.3885, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2527.4205, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2554.1665, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2580.6352, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2606.8353, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 221.0671, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2853.8417, "baseline": 221.0671 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 1834.0845, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4492.5453, "baseline": 1834.0845 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 3843.8464, "lower": 1159.9452, "upper": 6527.7476, "baseline": 3843.8464 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 5885.8935, "lower": 3176.7909, "upper": 8594.9962, "baseline": 5885.8935 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 7630.7758, "lower": 4896.7039, "upper": 10364.8477, "baseline": 7630.7758 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 8883.7087, "lower": 6124.8936, "upper": 11642.5238, "baseline": 8883.7087 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 9596.1264, "lower": 6812.788, "upper": 12379.4648, "baseline": 9596.1264 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 9801.7229, "lower": 6994.0754, "upper": 12609.3704, "baseline": 9801.7229 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 9532.99, "lower": 6701.2421, "upper": 12364.7379, "baseline": 9532.99 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 8780.3252, "lower": 5924.6803, "upper": 11635.9702, "baseline": 8780.3252 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 7522.2177, "lower": 4642.874, "upper": 10401.5613, "baseline": 7522.2177 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 5803.6248, "lower": 2900.7759, "upper": 8706.4737, "baseline": 5803.6248 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 3802.964, "lower": 876.7987, "upper": 6729.1293, "baseline": 3802.964 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 1829.7464, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4779.0439, "baseline": 1829.7464 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 235.0324, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3207.2819, "baseline": 235.0324 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2995.0257, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3017.63, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3040.0662, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3062.338, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3084.4491, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3106.4027, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3128.2023, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3149.851, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3171.352, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 247.0429, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3439.751, "baseline": 247.0429 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 1860.0603, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5073.9827, "baseline": 1860.0603 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 3869.8222, "lower": 634.8248, "upper": 7104.8197, "baseline": 3869.8222 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 5911.8694, "lower": 2655.9332, "upper": 9167.8056, "baseline": 5911.8694 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 7656.7516, "lower": 4380.0105, "upper": 10933.4927, "baseline": 7656.7516 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 8909.6845, "lower": 5612.2698, "upper": 12207.0993, "baseline": 8909.6845 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 9622.1022, "lower": 6304.1426, "upper": 12940.0618, "baseline": 9622.1022 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 9827.6987, "lower": 6489.3207, "upper": 13166.0767, "baseline": 9827.6987 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 9558.9658, "lower": 6200.2936, "upper": 12917.6381, "baseline": 9558.9658 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 8806.301, "lower": 5427.4564, "upper": 12185.1457, "baseline": 8806.301 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 7548.1935, "lower": 4149.2962, "upper": 10947.0908, "baseline": 7548.1935 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 5829.6007, "lower": 2410.7683, "upper": 9248.433, "baseline": 5829.6007 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 3828.9398, "lower": 390.288, "upper": 7267.5917, "baseline": 3828.9398 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 1855.7223, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5314.08, "baseline": 1855.7223 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 261.0083, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3738.9603, "baseline": 261.0083 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3497.4365, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3516.813, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3536.0834, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3555.2493, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3574.3124, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3593.2744, "baseline": 0.0 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 1806.0684 }, "backtest": { "mae": 491.427, "rmse": 759.356, "baseline_mae": 782.6377, "skill": 0.3721, "wape_pct": 13.021, "interval_coverage_pct": 100.0, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 378.1591 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 1094.2, "predicted": 1999.9035 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 3551.218, "predicted": 4015.8953 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 6245.03, "predicted": 6057.6578 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 7666.205, "predicted": 7793.4481 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 7848.539, "predicted": 9029.7511 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 10135.592, "predicted": 9722.9938 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 11168.949, "predicted": 9913.7495 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 9517.833, "predicted": 9640.2353 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 10547.767, "predicted": 8894.7059 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 8424.153, "predicted": 7652.68 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 6719.949, "predicted": 5952.6478 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 3997.982, "predicted": 3966.0211 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 937.08, "predicted": 1997.8438 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 398.9151 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 333.359 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 892.51, "predicted": 1955.1035 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 3523.134, "predicted": 3971.0953 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 7103.809, "predicted": 6012.8577 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 7837.258, "predicted": 7748.6481 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 9403.541, "predicted": 8984.951 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 11997.495, "predicted": 9678.1938 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 11136.936, "predicted": 9868.9494 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 11082.617, "predicted": 9595.4352 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 10565.687, "predicted": 8849.9059 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 8809.684, "predicted": 7607.8799 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 6535.37, "predicted": 5907.8477 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 3429.56, "predicted": 3921.2211 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 990.007, "predicted": 1953.0438 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 354.115 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 } ] } }, "price_mwh": { "target": "price_mwh", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 85.5427, "lower": 72.404, "upper": 98.6814, "baseline": 85.5427 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 85.3721, "lower": 71.9624, "upper": 98.7817, "baseline": 85.3721 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 83.5745, "lower": 69.8993, "upper": 97.2497, "baseline": 83.5745 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 79.2499, "lower": 65.3142, "upper": 93.1856, "baseline": 79.2499 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 72.5223, "lower": 58.3308, "upper": 86.7137, "baseline": 72.5223 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 64.4823, "lower": 50.0397, "upper": 78.9249, "baseline": 64.4823 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 56.6793, "lower": 41.9898, "upper": 71.3688, "baseline": 56.6793 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 50.4673, "lower": 35.5349, "upper": 65.3996, "baseline": 50.4673 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 46.5611, "lower": 31.3898, "upper": 61.7324, "baseline": 46.5611 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 45.004, "lower": 29.5975, "upper": 60.4105, "baseline": 45.004 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 45.489, "lower": 29.8508, "upper": 61.1272, "baseline": 45.489 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 47.7702, "lower": 31.9037, "upper": 63.6367, "baseline": 47.7702 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 51.8682, "lower": 35.7767, "upper": 67.9598, "baseline": 51.8682 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 57.927, "lower": 41.6135, "upper": 74.2406, "baseline": 57.927 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 65.8261, "lower": 49.2936, "upper": 82.3586, "baseline": 65.8261 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 74.8306, "lower": 58.082, "upper": 91.5793, "baseline": 74.8306 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 83.5627, "lower": 66.6007, "upper": 100.5247, "baseline": 83.5627 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 90.3944, "lower": 73.2217, "upper": 107.5671, "baseline": 90.3944 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 94.1003, "lower": 76.7194, "upper": 111.4812, "baseline": 94.1003 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 94.4241, "lower": 76.8376, "upper": 112.0107, "baseline": 94.4241 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 92.2288, "lower": 74.4389, "upper": 110.0187, "baseline": 92.2288 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 89.1059, "lower": 71.115, "upper": 107.0968, "baseline": 89.1059 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 85.7964, "lower": 67.6067, "upper": 103.9861, "baseline": 85.7964 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 84.7234, "lower": 66.3371, "upper": 103.1098, "baseline": 84.7234 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 84.7225, "lower": 66.1416, "upper": 103.3035, "baseline": 84.7225 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 84.5519, "lower": 65.7784, "upper": 103.3254, "baseline": 84.5519 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 82.7543, "lower": 63.7902, "upper": 101.7184, "baseline": 82.7543 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 78.4298, "lower": 59.277, "upper": 97.5826, "baseline": 78.4298 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 71.7021, "lower": 52.3625, "upper": 91.0418, "baseline": 71.7021 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 63.6621, "lower": 44.1374, "upper": 83.1869, "baseline": 63.6621 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 55.8591, "lower": 36.1511, "upper": 75.5672, "baseline": 55.8591 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 49.6471, "lower": 29.7574, "upper": 69.5368, "baseline": 49.6471 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 45.7409, "lower": 25.6712, "upper": 65.8106, "baseline": 45.7409 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 44.1839, "lower": 23.9358, "upper": 64.432, "baseline": 44.1839 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 44.6688, "lower": 24.2439, "upper": 65.0938, "baseline": 44.6688 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 46.9501, "lower": 26.3498, "upper": 67.5503, "baseline": 46.9501 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 51.0481, "lower": 30.274, "upper": 71.8222, "baseline": 51.0481 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 57.1069, "lower": 36.1604, "upper": 78.0534, "baseline": 57.1069 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 65.006, "lower": 43.8885, "upper": 86.1235, "baseline": 65.006 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 74.0105, "lower": 52.7233, "upper": 95.2976, "baseline": 74.0105 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 82.7425, "lower": 61.2871, "upper": 104.1979, "baseline": 82.7425 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 89.5742, "lower": 67.9519, "upper": 111.1966, "baseline": 89.5742 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 93.2801, "lower": 71.492, "upper": 115.0682, "baseline": 93.2801 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 93.604, "lower": 71.6514, "upper": 115.5565, "baseline": 93.604 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 91.4086, "lower": 69.2929, "upper": 113.5244, "baseline": 91.4086 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 88.2858, "lower": 66.008, "upper": 110.5635, "baseline": 88.2858 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 85.9607, "lower": 63.5221, "upper": 108.3994, "baseline": 85.9607 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 84.8878, "lower": 62.2894, "upper": 107.4861, "baseline": 84.8878 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 84.8868, "lower": 62.1299, "upper": 107.6437, "baseline": 84.8868 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 84.7162, "lower": 61.8018, "upper": 107.6306, "baseline": 84.7162 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 82.9186, "lower": 59.8478, "upper": 105.9895, "baseline": 82.9186 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 78.5941, "lower": 55.3679, "upper": 101.8203, "baseline": 78.5941 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 71.8664, "lower": 48.4859, "upper": 95.2469, "baseline": 71.8664 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 63.8265, "lower": 40.2926, "upper": 87.3603, "baseline": 63.8265 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 56.0234, "lower": 32.3373, "upper": 79.7096, "baseline": 56.0234 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 49.8114, "lower": 25.9739, "upper": 73.6489, "baseline": 49.8114 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 45.9053, "lower": 21.9174, "upper": 69.8931, "baseline": 45.9053 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 44.3482, "lower": 20.2108, "upper": 68.4855, "baseline": 44.3482 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 44.8331, "lower": 20.5473, "upper": 69.119, "baseline": 44.8331 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 47.1144, "lower": 22.6809, "upper": 71.5479, "baseline": 47.1144 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 51.2124, "lower": 26.6321, "upper": 75.7927, "baseline": 51.2124 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 57.2712, "lower": 32.5451, "upper": 81.9973, "baseline": 57.2712 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 65.1703, "lower": 40.2991, "upper": 90.0415, "baseline": 65.1703 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 74.1748, "lower": 49.1594, "upper": 99.1901, "baseline": 74.1748 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 82.9068, "lower": 57.7481, "upper": 108.0655, "baseline": 82.9068 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 89.7386, "lower": 64.4373, "upper": 115.0398, "baseline": 89.7386 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 93.4444, "lower": 68.0014, "upper": 118.8874, "baseline": 93.4444 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 93.7683, "lower": 68.1843, "upper": 119.3522, "baseline": 93.7683 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 91.5729, "lower": 65.8488, "upper": 117.2971, "baseline": 91.5729 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 88.4501, "lower": 62.5865, "upper": 114.3137, "baseline": 88.4501 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 88.2847, "lower": 62.2825, "upper": 114.287, "baseline": 88.2847 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 87.2117, "lower": 61.0715, "upper": 113.3519, "baseline": 87.2117 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 13.1387 }, "backtest": { "mae": 5.9604, "rmse": 7.3952, "baseline_mae": 11.7184, "skill": 0.4914, "wape_pct": 8.947, "interval_coverage_pct": 100.0, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 74.913, "predicted": 80.4008 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 76.979, "predicted": 80.2315 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 83.605, "predicted": 78.3998 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 78.963, "predicted": 74.0165 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 69.564, "predicted": 67.2344 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 68.213, "predicted": 59.1776 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 49.007, "predicted": 51.4164 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 42.28, "predicted": 45.3008 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 32.335, "predicted": 41.5172 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 40.022, "predicted": 40.0678 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 40.675, "predicted": 40.6113 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 34.388, "predicted": 42.8886 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 38.715, "predicted": 46.9325 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 55.549, "predicted": 52.9155 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 68.677, "predicted": 60.7468 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 72.921, "predicted": 69.7078 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 82.013, "predicted": 78.4193 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 81.603, "predicted": 85.24 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 83.055, "predicted": 88.931 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 85.641, "predicted": 89.2328 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 81.187, "predicted": 87.017 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 87.13, "predicted": 83.8886 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 89.447, "predicted": 81.4817 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 84.868, "predicted": 80.4403 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 69.154, "predicted": 80.4666 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 81.738, "predicted": 80.2974 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 75.262, "predicted": 78.4657 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 78.672, "predicted": 74.0824 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 81.274, "predicted": 67.3003 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 63.141, "predicted": 59.2435 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 42.572, "predicted": 51.4823 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 53.53, "predicted": 45.3667 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 43.933, "predicted": 41.5831 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 27.219, "predicted": 40.1337 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 34.107, "predicted": 40.6772 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 44.629, "predicted": 42.9545 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 33.585, "predicted": 46.9984 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 32.274, "predicted": 52.9814 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 48.036, "predicted": 60.8127 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 76.165, "predicted": 69.7737 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 79.139, "predicted": 78.4852 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 89.425, "predicted": 85.3059 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 92.812, "predicted": 88.9969 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 91.174, "predicted": 89.2987 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 81.74, "predicted": 87.0828 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 100.566, "predicted": 83.9544 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 92.289, "predicted": 86.6152 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 83.493, "predicted": 85.5738 } ] } } } }, { "id": "ES:ES", "country": "ES", "country_name": "Spain", "zone": "ES", "timezone": "Europe/Madrid", "currency": "EUR", "source_kind": "synthetic", "history": { "rows": 1344, "first": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "frequency": "1 hour", "timebase": "UTC timestamps; local market time for model features" }, "results": { "load_mw": { "target": "load_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 22677.2406, "lower": 21645.7531, "upper": 23708.728, "baseline": 22677.2406 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 22088.1992, "lower": 21035.4417, "upper": 23140.9567, "baseline": 22088.1992 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 21721.2518, "lower": 20647.6456, "upper": 22794.858, "baseline": 21721.2518 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 21599.401, "lower": 20505.3433, "upper": 22693.4586, "baseline": 21599.401 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 21728.4018, "lower": 20614.268, "upper": 22842.5356, "baseline": 21728.4018 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 22097.6953, "lower": 20963.8408, "upper": 23231.5498, "baseline": 22097.6953 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 22682.3672, "lower": 21529.1291, "upper": 23835.6052, "baseline": 22682.3672 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 23445.2171, "lower": 22272.9159, "upper": 24617.5182, "baseline": 23445.2171 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 24338.4418, "lower": 23147.3827, "upper": 25529.501, "baseline": 24338.4418 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 25305.1293, "lower": 24095.6031, "upper": 26514.6556, "baseline": 25305.1293 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 26281.3107, "lower": 25053.5951, "upper": 27509.0264, "baseline": 26281.3107 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 27199.3686, "lower": 25953.7292, "upper": 28445.0081, "baseline": 27199.3686 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 27993.0818, "lower": 26729.7728, "upper": 29256.3908, "baseline": 27993.0818 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 28603.7604, "lower": 27323.0257, "upper": 29884.4952, "baseline": 28603.7604 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 28986.2435, "lower": 27688.3169, "upper": 30284.1701, "baseline": 28986.2435 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 29113.3657, "lower": 27798.472, "upper": 30428.2593, "baseline": 29113.3657 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 28977.9594, "lower": 27646.3148, "upper": 30309.604, "baseline": 28977.9594 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 28592.2999, "lower": 27244.1125, "upper": 29940.4873, "baseline": 28592.2999 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 27985.6869, "lower": 26621.1573, "upper": 29350.2166, "baseline": 27985.6869 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 27201.1998, "lower": 25820.5213, "upper": 28581.8783, "baseline": 27201.1998 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 26292.4394, "lower": 24895.7987, "upper": 27689.08, "baseline": 26292.4394 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 25320.4805, "lower": 23908.0581, "upper": 26732.9029, "baseline": 25320.4805 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 24436.644, "lower": 23008.6143, "upper": 25864.6737, "baseline": 24436.644 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 23534.952, "lower": 22091.4837, "upper": 24978.4203, "baseline": 23534.952 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 22763.18, "lower": 21304.4364, "upper": 24221.9235, "baseline": 22763.18 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 22174.1386, "lower": 20700.2781, "upper": 23647.9991, "baseline": 22174.1386 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 21807.1912, "lower": 20318.3673, "upper": 23296.0151, "baseline": 21807.1912 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 21685.3404, "lower": 20181.7019, "upper": 23188.9788, "baseline": 21685.3404 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 21814.3412, "lower": 20296.0327, "upper": 23332.6496, "baseline": 21814.3412 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 22183.6347, "lower": 20650.7967, "upper": 23716.4727, "baseline": 22183.6347 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 22768.3066, "lower": 21221.0754, "upper": 24315.5378, "baseline": 22768.3066 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 23531.1564, "lower": 21969.6647, "upper": 25092.6481, "baseline": 23531.1564 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 24424.3812, "lower": 22848.7581, "upper": 26000.0043, "baseline": 24424.3812 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 25391.0687, "lower": 23801.4398, "upper": 26980.6977, "baseline": 25391.0687 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 26367.2501, "lower": 24763.7377, "upper": 27970.7625, "baseline": 26367.2501 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 27285.308, "lower": 25668.0313, "upper": 28902.5848, "baseline": 27285.308 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 28079.0212, "lower": 26448.0963, "upper": 29709.9461, "baseline": 28079.0212 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 28689.6998, "lower": 27045.2401, "upper": 30334.1596, "baseline": 28689.6998 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 29072.1829, "lower": 27414.2987, "upper": 30730.067, "baseline": 29072.1829 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 29199.305, "lower": 27528.1043, "upper": 30870.5057, "baseline": 29199.305 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 29063.8988, "lower": 27379.4868, "upper": 30748.3107, "baseline": 29063.8988 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 28678.2393, "lower": 26980.7188, "upper": 30375.7597, "baseline": 28678.2393 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 28071.6263, "lower": 26361.0978, "upper": 29782.1547, "baseline": 28071.6263 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 27287.1392, "lower": 25563.7009, "upper": 29010.5774, "baseline": 27287.1392 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 26378.3787, "lower": 24642.1266, "upper": 28114.6309, "baseline": 26378.3787 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 25406.4199, "lower": 23657.4478, "upper": 27155.392, "baseline": 25406.4199 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 24401.5397, "lower": 22639.9395, "upper": 26163.1399, "baseline": 24401.5397 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 23499.8477, "lower": 21725.7092, "upper": 25273.9861, "baseline": 23499.8477 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 22728.0756, "lower": 20941.4869, "upper": 24514.6643, "baseline": 22728.0756 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 22139.0343, "lower": 20340.0815, "upper": 23937.987, "baseline": 22139.0343 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 21772.0869, "lower": 19960.8544, "upper": 23583.3193, "baseline": 21772.0869 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 21650.236, "lower": 19826.8066, "upper": 23473.6655, "baseline": 21650.236 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 21779.2368, "lower": 19943.6914, "upper": 23614.7822, "baseline": 21779.2368 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 22148.5304, "lower": 20300.9485, "upper": 23996.1123, "baseline": 22148.5304 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 22733.2022, "lower": 20873.6618, "upper": 24592.7427, "baseline": 22733.2022 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 23496.0521, "lower": 21624.6295, "upper": 25367.4747, "baseline": 23496.0521 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 24389.2769, "lower": 22506.047, "upper": 26272.5067, "baseline": 24389.2769 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 25355.9644, "lower": 23461.0009, "upper": 27250.9279, "baseline": 25355.9644 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 26332.1458, "lower": 24425.5209, "upper": 28238.7707, "baseline": 26332.1458 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 27250.2037, "lower": 25331.9883, "upper": 29168.4191, "baseline": 27250.2037 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 28043.9169, "lower": 26114.1805, "upper": 29973.6532, "baseline": 28043.9169 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 28654.5955, "lower": 26713.4066, "upper": 30595.7844, "baseline": 28654.5955 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 29037.0785, "lower": 27084.5043, "upper": 30989.6528, "baseline": 29037.0785 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 29164.2007, "lower": 27200.3071, "upper": 31128.0943, "baseline": 29164.2007 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 29028.7944, "lower": 27053.6463, "upper": 31003.9425, "baseline": 29028.7944 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 28643.1349, "lower": 26656.7961, "upper": 30629.4738, "baseline": 28643.1349 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 28036.522, "lower": 26039.0551, "upper": 30033.9888, "baseline": 28036.522 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 27252.0348, "lower": 25243.5016, "upper": 29260.5681, "baseline": 27252.0348 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 26343.2744, "lower": 24323.7354, "upper": 28362.8134, "baseline": 26343.2744 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 25371.3156, "lower": 23340.8305, "upper": 27401.8007, "baseline": 25371.3156 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 24575.2768, "lower": 22533.9043, "upper": 26616.6493, "baseline": 24575.2768 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 23673.5848, "lower": 21621.3827, "upper": 25725.787, "baseline": 23673.5848 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 1031.4875 }, "backtest": { "mae": 681.5575, "rmse": 850.8451, "baseline_mae": 3380.397, "skill": 0.7984, "wape_pct": 3.111, "interval_coverage_pct": 89.58, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 18003.576, "predicted": 19142.2655 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 18614.463, "predicted": 18545.2608 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 18599.682, "predicted": 18167.401 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 17894.042, "predicted": 18036.7701 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 19273.598, "predicted": 18162.5488 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 19631.649, "predicted": 18534.2959 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 18538.845, "predicted": 19124.2264 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 20128.666, "predicted": 19891.285 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 20741.895, "predicted": 20785.2627 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 21621.474, "predicted": 21749.6823 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 21692.192, "predicted": 22723.3916 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 23957.352, "predicted": 23641.9816 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 23137.842, "predicted": 24440.5645 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 24712.306, "predicted": 25058.7908 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 25224.763, "predicted": 25447.6154 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 24502.449, "predicted": 25576.016 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 25142.042, "predicted": 25435.4099 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 24543.192, "predicted": 25040.211 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 26164.237, "predicted": 24424.4884 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 23086.005, "predicted": 23636.2082 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 22959.177, "predicted": 22731.2658 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 22093.981, "predicted": 21769.0763 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 21178.169, "predicted": 20909.5633 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 19535.194, "predicted": 20014.425 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 17975.614, "predicted": 19241.6343 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 19296.747, "predicted": 18644.6296 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 18575.349, "predicted": 18266.7697 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 17459.568, "predicted": 18136.1389 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 16908.198, "predicted": 18261.9176 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 19612.256, "predicted": 18633.6647 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 19520.938, "predicted": 19223.5952 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 20435.497, "predicted": 19990.6538 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 19667.044, "predicted": 20884.6315 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 22443.226, "predicted": 21849.0511 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 24653.298, "predicted": 22822.7604 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 23095.134, "predicted": 23741.3504 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 24820.704, "predicted": 24539.9333 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 26329.398, "predicted": 25158.1596 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 25506.331, "predicted": 25546.9842 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 24535.659, "predicted": 25675.3848 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 24952.537, "predicted": 25534.7787 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 24589.056, "predicted": 25139.5798 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 26665.105, "predicted": 24523.8572 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 22388.122, "predicted": 23735.577 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 22883.308, "predicted": 22830.6346 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 21810.531, "predicted": 21868.4451 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 23706.727, "predicted": 24379.4241 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 22731.797, "predicted": 23484.2858 } ] } }, "solar_mw": { "target": "solar_mw", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1956.3574, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 1996.6989, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2036.2413, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 273.0575, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2348.0878, "baseline": 273.0575 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 2477.2718, "lower": 364.1643, "upper": 4590.3793, "baseline": 2477.2718 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 5285.8347, "lower": 3135.3242, "upper": 7436.3453, "baseline": 5285.8347 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 7938.6228, "lower": 5751.3487, "upper": 10125.8968, "baseline": 7938.6228 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 10367.7103, "lower": 8144.2805, "upper": 12591.1402, "baseline": 10367.7103 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 11803.2994, "lower": 9544.2924, "upper": 14062.3063, "baseline": 11803.2994 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 12519.273, "lower": 10225.2406, "upper": 14813.3054, "baseline": 12519.273 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 12409.0606, "lower": 10080.5295, "upper": 14737.5917, "baseline": 12409.0606 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 12357.2104, "lower": 9994.6844, "upper": 14719.7364, "baseline": 12357.2104 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 11557.4018, "lower": 9161.3631, "upper": 13953.4405, "baseline": 11557.4018 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 9829.7291, "lower": 7400.64, "upper": 12258.8181, "baseline": 9829.7291 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 7941.8108, "lower": 5480.115, "upper": 10403.5065, "baseline": 7941.8108 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 5275.6811, "lower": 2781.8049, "upper": 7769.5572, "baseline": 5275.6811 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 2449.1776, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4974.8241, "baseline": 2449.1776 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 273.2605, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2830.2828, "baseline": 273.2605 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2588.0176, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2618.6461, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2648.9204, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2678.8527, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2708.4542, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2737.7356, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2766.7072, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2795.3785, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2823.7587, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 257.3276, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3109.1841, "baseline": 257.3276 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 2404.4183, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5284.0984, "baseline": 2404.4183 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 5155.4686, "lower": 2248.2311, "upper": 8062.7061, "baseline": 5155.4686 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 7821.3001, "lower": 4886.764, "upper": 10755.8362, "baseline": 7821.3001 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 9983.8648, "lower": 7022.2817, "upper": 12945.4479, "baseline": 9983.8648 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 11513.8126, "lower": 8525.4273, "upper": 14502.1979, "baseline": 11513.8126 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 12778.3059, "lower": 9763.3566, "upper": 15793.2551, "baseline": 12778.3059 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 13230.1163, "lower": 10188.8352, "upper": 16271.3975, "baseline": 13230.1163 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 12442.1046, "lower": 9374.7175, "upper": 15509.4917, "baseline": 12442.1046 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 11819.4062, "lower": 8726.1335, "upper": 14912.6788, "baseline": 11819.4062 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 9702.4516, "lower": 6583.5082, "upper": 12821.395, "baseline": 9702.4516 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 7969.7279, "lower": 4825.3233, "upper": 11114.1325, "baseline": 7969.7279 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 4971.0178, "lower": 1801.3565, "upper": 8140.6791, "baseline": 4971.0178 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 2440.7545, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5635.4728, "baseline": 2440.7545 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 247.1329, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3466.7131, "baseline": 247.1329 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3244.2517, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3268.737, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3293.0402, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3317.1654, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3341.1163, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3364.8968, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3388.5104, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3411.9606, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3435.2507, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 213.8696, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3672.2535, "baseline": 213.8696 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 2404.403, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 5885.7665, "baseline": 2404.403 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 5065.8655, "lower": 1561.6731, "upper": 8570.0578, "baseline": 5065.8655 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 7344.7765, "lower": 3817.903, "upper": 10871.6499, "baseline": 7344.7765 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 9971.7882, "lower": 6422.3786, "upper": 13521.1978, "baseline": 9971.7882 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 10997.3445, "lower": 7425.5409, "upper": 14569.1481, "baseline": 10997.3445 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 12585.7932, "lower": 8991.7352, "upper": 16179.8513, "baseline": 12585.7932 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 12597.6991, "lower": 8981.5235, "upper": 16213.8746, "baseline": 12597.6991 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 12384.0661, "lower": 8745.9075, "upper": 16022.2247, "baseline": 12384.0661 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 11633.8704, "lower": 7973.8609, "upper": 15293.88, "baseline": 11633.8704 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 10072.1037, "lower": 6390.3728, "upper": 13753.8345, "baseline": 10072.1037 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 7643.4945, "lower": 3940.1697, "upper": 11346.8193, "baseline": 7643.4945 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 5116.7615, "lower": 1391.968, "upper": 8841.5551, "baseline": 5116.7615 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 2440.7413, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 6186.8805, "baseline": 2440.7413 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 207.0945, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3974.4585, "baseline": 207.0945 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3788.4698, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3809.4587, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3830.3326, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3851.0934, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3871.7428, "baseline": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 0.0, "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3892.2827, "baseline": 0.0 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 0.5, "seasonal_weight": 0.5, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 1956.3574 }, "backtest": { "mae": 760.6748, "rmse": 1283.8687, "baseline_mae": 1020.409, "skill": 0.2545, "wape_pct": 15.287, "interval_coverage_pct": 93.75, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 282.7562 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 1312.929, "predicted": 2533.5037 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 4410.58, "predicted": 5356.6825 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 8025.804, "predicted": 8141.2379 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 10676.105, "predicted": 9957.3488 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 11392.089, "predicted": 10856.1084 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 13602.824, "predicted": 12392.2542 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 13880.117, "predicted": 12883.0397 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 11143.583, "predicted": 12810.5536 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 12540.453, "predicted": 10876.988 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 9857.323, "predicted": 10229.5402 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 8525.463, "predicted": 7544.2827 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 4843.523, "predicted": 5072.1191 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 1207.533, "predicted": 2516.829 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 285.2639 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 241.6398 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 1186.755, "predicted": 2478.7406 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 4785.324, "predicted": 5233.3994 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 7866.443, "predicted": 7661.0454 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 12005.746, "predicted": 9633.3471 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 14552.785, "predicted": 11279.2571 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 12557.009, "predicted": 12503.7201 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 14997.274, "predicted": 13035.2035 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 16332.612, "predicted": 12530.626 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 14913.561, "predicted": 11085.5784 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 12709.374, "predicted": 9691.2669 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 9409.481, "predicted": 7632.4018 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 4674.42, "predicted": 5098.4392 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 1430.767, "predicted": 2483.2851 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 228.0746 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 0.0, "predicted": 0.0 } ] } }, "price_mwh": { "target": "price_mwh", "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z", "point": 86.7874, "lower": 73.822, "upper": 99.7528, "baseline": 86.7874 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T01:00:00Z", "point": 86.8548, "lower": 73.622, "upper": 100.0876, "baseline": 86.8548 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T02:00:00Z", "point": 85.2396, "lower": 71.7448, "upper": 98.7345, "baseline": 85.2396 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "point": 80.9541, "lower": 67.2022, "upper": 94.7061, "baseline": 80.9541 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T04:00:00Z", "point": 74.0843, "lower": 60.0801, "upper": 88.0886, "baseline": 74.0843 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "point": 65.7543, "lower": 51.5021, "upper": 80.0064, "baseline": 65.7543 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "point": 57.6081, "lower": 43.1123, "upper": 72.1039, "baseline": 57.6081 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "point": 51.1188, "lower": 36.3833, "upper": 65.8542, "baseline": 51.1188 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "point": 47.0959, "lower": 32.1247, "upper": 62.0671, "baseline": 47.0959 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T09:00:00Z", "point": 45.6175, "lower": 30.4141, "upper": 60.8208, "baseline": 45.6175 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T10:00:00Z", "point": 46.3426, "lower": 30.9106, "upper": 61.7745, "baseline": 46.3426 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T11:00:00Z", "point": 48.9438, "lower": 33.2866, "upper": 64.6011, "baseline": 48.9438 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00Z", "point": 53.3499, "lower": 37.4706, "upper": 69.2293, "baseline": 53.3499 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "point": 59.6369, "lower": 43.5386, "upper": 75.7353, "baseline": 59.6369 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z", "point": 67.6567, "lower": 51.3422, "upper": 83.9712, "baseline": 67.6567 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "point": 76.6808, "lower": 60.1531, "upper": 93.2086, "baseline": 76.6808 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T16:00:00Z", "point": 85.3537, "lower": 68.6154, "upper": 102.092, "baseline": 85.3537 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z", "point": 92.0681, "lower": 75.1218, "upper": 109.0143, "baseline": 92.0681 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T18:00:00Z", "point": 95.6127, "lower": 78.461, "upper": 112.7644, "baseline": 95.6127 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:00:00Z", "point": 95.7477, "lower": 78.3931, "upper": 113.1023, "baseline": 95.7477 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:00:00Z", "point": 93.366, "lower": 75.8107, "upper": 110.9212, "baseline": 93.366 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "point": 90.1057, "lower": 72.3521, "upper": 107.8594, "baseline": 90.1057 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "point": 84.9916, "lower": 67.0418, "upper": 102.9414, "baseline": 84.9916 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "point": 84.006, "lower": 65.8621, "upper": 102.1499, "baseline": 84.006 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:00:00Z", "point": 84.2014, "lower": 65.8656, "upper": 102.5373, "baseline": 84.2014 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T01:00:00Z", "point": 84.2688, "lower": 65.7429, "upper": 102.7947, "baseline": 84.2688 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T02:00:00Z", "point": 82.6537, "lower": 63.9397, "upper": 101.3676, "baseline": 82.6537 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T03:00:00Z", "point": 78.3682, "lower": 59.468, "upper": 97.2684, "baseline": 78.3682 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T04:00:00Z", "point": 71.4984, "lower": 52.4138, "upper": 90.583, "baseline": 71.4984 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T05:00:00Z", "point": 63.1683, "lower": 43.9011, "upper": 82.4356, "baseline": 63.1683 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:00:00Z", "point": 55.0222, "lower": 35.574, "upper": 74.4703, "baseline": 55.0222 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T07:00:00Z", "point": 48.5328, "lower": 28.9054, "upper": 68.1602, "baseline": 48.5328 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "point": 44.5099, "lower": 24.7049, "upper": 64.315, "baseline": 44.5099 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "point": 43.0315, "lower": 23.0504, "upper": 63.0126, "baseline": 43.0315 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T10:00:00Z", "point": 43.7566, "lower": 23.601, "upper": 63.9122, "baseline": 43.7566 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "point": 46.3579, "lower": 26.0293, "upper": 66.6865, "baseline": 46.3579 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "point": 50.764, "lower": 30.2638, "upper": 71.2641, "baseline": 50.764 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T13:00:00Z", "point": 57.051, "lower": 36.3807, "upper": 77.7213, "baseline": 57.051 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T14:00:00Z", "point": 65.0707, "lower": 44.2317, "upper": 85.9098, "baseline": 65.0707 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "point": 74.0949, "lower": 53.0885, "upper": 95.1013, "baseline": 74.0949 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T16:00:00Z", "point": 82.7678, "lower": 61.5953, "upper": 103.9402, "baseline": 82.7678 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T17:00:00Z", "point": 89.4821, "lower": 68.1449, "upper": 110.8194, "baseline": 89.4821 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:00:00Z", "point": 93.0267, "lower": 71.526, "upper": 114.5275, "baseline": 93.0267 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T19:00:00Z", "point": 93.1617, "lower": 71.4987, "upper": 114.8247, "baseline": 93.1617 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:00:00Z", "point": 90.78, "lower": 68.9559, "upper": 112.6041, "baseline": 90.78 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "point": 87.5197, "lower": 65.5358, "upper": 109.5037, "baseline": 87.5197 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "point": 84.3624, "lower": 62.2197, "upper": 106.5051, "baseline": 84.3624 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "point": 83.3768, "lower": 61.0765, "upper": 105.6771, "baseline": 83.3768 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z", "point": 83.5722, "lower": 61.1154, "upper": 106.029, "baseline": 83.5722 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T01:00:00Z", "point": 83.6396, "lower": 61.0274, "upper": 106.2518, "baseline": 83.6396 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T02:00:00Z", "point": 82.0244, "lower": 59.2579, "upper": 104.791, "baseline": 82.0244 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "point": 77.7389, "lower": 54.8191, "upper": 100.6588, "baseline": 77.7389 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T04:00:00Z", "point": 70.8691, "lower": 47.797, "upper": 93.9413, "baseline": 70.8691 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T05:00:00Z", "point": 62.5391, "lower": 39.3156, "upper": 85.7625, "baseline": 62.5391 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:00:00Z", "point": 54.3929, "lower": 31.0192, "upper": 77.7667, "baseline": 54.3929 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T07:00:00Z", "point": 47.9035, "lower": 24.3804, "upper": 71.4267, "baseline": 47.9035 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T08:00:00Z", "point": 43.8807, "lower": 20.2092, "upper": 67.5522, "baseline": 43.8807 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:00:00Z", "point": 42.4023, "lower": 18.5832, "upper": 66.2213, "baseline": 42.4023 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "point": 43.1273, "lower": 19.1617, "upper": 67.093, "baseline": 43.1273 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "point": 45.7286, "lower": 21.6173, "upper": 69.8399, "baseline": 45.7286 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z", "point": 50.1347, "lower": 25.8786, "upper": 74.3908, "baseline": 50.1347 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:00:00Z", "point": 56.4217, "lower": 32.0217, "upper": 80.8218, "baseline": 56.4217 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T14:00:00Z", "point": 64.4415, "lower": 39.8983, "upper": 88.9847, "baseline": 64.4415 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "point": 73.4656, "lower": 48.7802, "upper": 98.1511, "baseline": 73.4656 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T16:00:00Z", "point": 82.1385, "lower": 57.3116, "upper": 106.9654, "baseline": 82.1385 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T17:00:00Z", "point": 88.8529, "lower": 63.8853, "upper": 113.8205, "baseline": 88.8529 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z", "point": 92.3975, "lower": 67.29, "upper": 117.505, "baseline": 92.3975 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T19:00:00Z", "point": 92.5325, "lower": 67.2859, "upper": 117.779, "baseline": 92.5325 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "point": 90.1508, "lower": 64.7659, "upper": 115.5357, "baseline": 90.1508 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "point": 86.8905, "lower": 61.368, "upper": 112.413, "baseline": 86.8905 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:00:00Z", "point": 87.4075, "lower": 61.7482, "upper": 113.0668, "baseline": 87.4075 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:00:00Z", "point": 86.4219, "lower": 60.6264, "upper": 112.2174, "baseline": 86.4219 } ], "model": { "name": "calendar-ridge + local-seasonal", "ridge_weight": 1.0, "seasonal_weight": 0.0, "calibration_rows": 168, "calibration_radius": 12.9654 }, "backtest": { "mae": 7.214, "rmse": 8.6181, "baseline_mae": 11.1531, "skill": 0.3532, "wape_pct": 11.181, "interval_coverage_pct": 97.92, "rows": 48, "first": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "last": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "scenario_applied": false, "points": [ { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "actual": 70.7, "predicted": 79.666 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "actual": 85.773, "predicted": 79.714 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "actual": 60.352, "predicted": 78.0964 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "actual": 69.189, "predicted": 73.8131 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual": 75.68, "predicted": 66.9328 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:00:00Z", "actual": 70.528, "predicted": 58.573 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T06:00:00Z", "actual": 50.422, "predicted": 50.3897 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual": 39.427, "predicted": 43.8818 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T08:00:00Z", "actual": 36.868, "predicted": 39.8826 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T09:00:00Z", "actual": 46.282, "predicted": 38.4744 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T10:00:00Z", "actual": 28.067, "predicted": 39.2934 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:00:00Z", "actual": 42.563, "predicted": 41.9702 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:00:00Z", "actual": 37.772, "predicted": 46.3924 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "actual": 55.762, "predicted": 52.6183 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "actual": 58.545, "predicted": 60.5167 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual": 78.529, "predicted": 69.4047 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "actual": 83.199, "predicted": 77.9797 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "actual": 88.772, "predicted": 84.6703 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual": 91.59, "predicted": 88.2675 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T19:00:00Z", "actual": 82.146, "predicted": 88.5015 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T20:00:00Z", "actual": 82.706, "predicted": 86.2199 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:00:00Z", "actual": 84.092, "predicted": 83.0234 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T22:00:00Z", "actual": 78.742, "predicted": 82.477 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual": 67.502, "predicted": 81.4695 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual": 76.088, "predicted": 81.6333 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T01:00:00Z", "actual": 86.344, "predicted": 81.6813 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T02:00:00Z", "actual": 84.33, "predicted": 80.0637 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T03:00:00Z", "actual": 71.697, "predicted": 75.7804 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T04:00:00Z", "actual": 53.984, "predicted": 68.9001 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:00:00Z", "actual": 50.572, "predicted": 60.5403 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z", "actual": 46.924, "predicted": 52.357 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T07:00:00Z", "actual": 41.485, "predicted": 45.8491 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T08:00:00Z", "actual": 34.095, "predicted": 41.8499 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T09:00:00Z", "actual": 49.852, "predicted": 40.4417 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T10:00:00Z", "actual": 30.726, "predicted": 41.2607 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T11:00:00Z", "actual": 28.622, "predicted": 43.9375 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:00:00Z", "actual": 29.203, "predicted": 48.3597 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T13:00:00Z", "actual": 40.389, "predicted": 54.5856 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T14:00:00Z", "actual": 64.482, "predicted": 62.484 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "actual": 57.579, "predicted": 71.372 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual": 86.827, "predicted": 79.947 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T17:00:00Z", "actual": 87.463, "predicted": 86.6376 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T18:00:00Z", "actual": 95.004, "predicted": 90.2349 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T19:00:00Z", "actual": 77.55, "predicted": 90.4688 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "actual": 96.0, "predicted": 88.1872 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "actual": 80.615, "predicted": 84.9907 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "actual": 86.761, "predicted": 88.3809 }, { "timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "actual": 75.07, "predicted": 87.3734 } ] } } } } ] }